FIL's five-year 'sell contract' expiration, miners retreat = retail investors' bargain window?

'Round Sister, can FIL still be touched?' — I was bombarded with questions in the background last night.

First, the conclusion: Yes, but don't expect it to pump tomorrow; it's more appropriate to treat it as 'interest-bearing savings'.

First, let's talk about the miners running away.

The mainnet launched in October 2020, and the first batch of five-year contracts will start to expire in Q4 this year, machines off the shelf = computing power offline.

A quick data check makes it clear, it's not that the project is bad, it's that the time has come, and they don’t want to renew the lease, which is like ending a rental agreement.

With fewer miners, the selling pressure has actually decreased as well.

The linear unlocking of FIL has passed the halfway mark, the most intense dumping phase is over, and as the remaining chips are unlocked, they become more dispersed, reducing the number of 'time bombs'.

Now, what can retail investors do? Keeping the spot in a cold wallet and waiting? That’s too much of a loss.

Now, many places offer FIL with a 3-month fixed-term financial product, with an annualized return of 6%–10%, locking in for interest; UNI and SUSHI don't have this treatment.

With the market stagnant, contracts are being cut back and forth; it’s better to slowly accumulate spot holdings with part of the position + earn interest, a dual-thread recovery.

On the institutional side, it's more straightforward: Grayscale secretly bought FIL 86 times this year, with an average cost of around 10U; their annual KPI is tight, so they can only invest in a 'dumb way'.

We just need to learn — buy more when it drops, relax and collect interest when it rises; when the market warms up next year, having coins + interest will make you feel secure.

To sum it up: Don't fantasize about getting rich quickly; treat coins as fixed deposits in a bear market, and consider interest as bonuses in a bull market; ordinary people can turn their fortunes this way.

Those who survive in the market and still make money have always been those who dare to reach out first.

Are you ready? @bit福多多

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