The XRP price has risen by approximately 2.3% over the last day, but the overall picture remains weak. The token is still down around 14% over the last month and about 8.5% over the last seven days.
This weakness is particularly evident because it occurs simultaneously with six consecutive weeks of spot ETF inflow. At first glance, it may seem bullish. In reality, the details explain why the price has stalled.
Six weeks of ETF inflow, but the momentum is waning.
Spot XRP ETFs have now seen inflows for six consecutive weeks. It started in mid-November and pushed the total net inflows over $1.01 billion.
The strongest demand came early. The week that started on November 14 saw a net inflow of $243.05 million. This was followed by $179.60 million on November 21 and $243.95 million on November 28. The momentum peaked again early in December with $230.74 million in the week that started on December 5.
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Since then, the inflow has dropped sharply. The week that started on December 11 ended with $93.57 million, and the last week that ended on December 16 yielded only $19.44 million.
So even though the chart shows 'six weeks of inflow', the trend is cooling beneath the surface. Demand for ETFs is still positive, but it is no longer increasing. This cooling explains why XRP price has not been able to follow the previous inflow strength upward.
On-chain signals show a split between holder groups
If demand for ETFs decreased but on-chain holders went in heavily, the price could still stabilize. That hasn't happened yet.
A concerning signal comes from the share of XRP supply that was last active over a year ago. It has risen from 48.75% on December 2 to 51.00%, the highest level in about a month. When older coins begin to move, it often means that long-dormant supply becomes active, which can contribute to selling pressure even without panic.
At the same time, another group of long-term holders is behaving differently. The Hodler net position change for wallets that have held XRP for more than 155 days shows that selling pressure is decreasing. Net outflow peaked at around 216.86 million XRP on December 11 but fell to about 154.57 million XRP by December 16. This represents a reduction of about 29% in net sales.
This presents a mixed picture. Some of the long-term supply is coming back to life, which is bearish. However, some of these holders are selling less, which has helped the XRP price to avoid a sharp decline, for now. One theory is that the coin movements have now occurred, and these holders are waiting to sell when the price rises towards higher levels.
Unless the Hodler net position change turns green (net buying), XRP price increases may prove not to hold.
XRP price levels determine whether the pause leads to a drop
The price development reflects this balance. XRP price is currently trading within a descending wedge and remains locked in the middle of the recent trading range.
For bulls, it is $2.28 that matters. A daily close above this level would break the wedge and provide about 19% upside from current levels, shifting momentum back to buyers.
Downside risk remains more immediate. If XRP loses $1.74, which is the 0.618 Fibonacci level, the chart opens up for movements towards $1.59 — with a deeper extension towards $1.41 if the market weakness continues.
Right now, inflow to the ETFs alone is not enough. With declining demand and mixed on-chain signals, XRP price remains locked between the support level holding and sellers slowly regaining control.
