Good evening, brothers. Let's take a look at the news. Yesterday, the unemployment rate exceeded expectations, reaching a nearly four-year high. In theory, this should be positive, but BTC is almost motionless. The reason is simple: there are two major events this week that have led to preemptive risk aversion.
Both of these events will bring about significant volatility.
Tomorrow night at 21:30, if the CPI is higher than expected, it will clearly be bearish; if it is lower than expected, it will clearly be bullish.
On Friday, whether the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates: a 25bp increase (about 70% probability) is in line with expectations and has little impact. The recent drop has basically already reflected this in advance. A rate hike of ≥50bp (about 30% probability) would be clearly bearish for BTC, which may fall below 82,000, leading to a downward spike.
One thing that can be confirmed is that the closer we get to these two time points, the weaker BTC becomes. Panic will be infinitely magnified, and a short-term drop below 85,000 cannot be ruled out, with Ethereum dropping below 2900.
However, if the CPI is positive and the Bank of Japan's action lands, the market is expected to recover quickly, and BTC standing back above 90,000 is not a luxury.
In this kind of volatility + event-driven market, the most common mistake is to be forced by emotions to sell at the bottom.
My strategy is very simple: do not chase, do not panic, keep good ammunition, and when the real black swan comes, you still have the qualification to buy the dip. Many people get liquidated, but the cycle only rewards the calm.
This month's performance is not bad. The stage of Mr. Crab is only reserved for those who have vision and ambition in pursuit of their dreams.
