橙子研究院
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Bearish
#HashKey港股上市
On December 17, HashKey Holdings Limited (stock code 3887.HK) officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange main board, becoming the first digital asset enterprise to be publicly issued in Hong Kong, with an opening market capitalization of HKD 18.527 billion (approximately USD 2.38 billion). The global offering was priced at HKD 6.68 per share, close to the upper limit of the offering range, attracting nine cornerstone investors including UBS Asset Management Singapore, Fidelity, and Dinghui Investment. However, beneath the glamorous surface, the issue of valuation bubble is particularly prominent.
The core contradiction lies in the severe disconnect between the company's market capitalization and the valuation of its ecological tokens — its HSK token is currently valued at only USD 290 million, while the market capitalization upon listing is actually 8.2 times the token valuation, with a premium that far exceeds the industry's conventional level. More critically, the earnings fundamentals are unable to support such a high valuation: from 2022 to 2024, the company accumulated a net loss of over HKD 2.35 billion, and in the first half of 2025, it still reported a loss of HKD 507 million, with revenue in the first half declining by 26% year-on-year and trading volume sharply down by 38.4%. Profitability continues to weaken, with gross margin dropping from 97.2% in 2022 to 65% in the first half of 2025, and R&D expenses accounting for as much as 77.2% in 2024, resulting in significant cost pressure.
Market competitiveness is also lacking, with HashKey's global digital asset trading market share at only 1% and on-chain service market share at less than 1%, showing a stark gap compared to leading institutions. In comparison to Coinbase's industry status and user scale corresponding to its market capitalization of USD 72 billion, HashKey's valuation of USD 2.38 billion lacks support, and Hong Kong has already issued 11 virtual asset trading licenses, leading to increasingly fierce industry competition. Although the company is laying out three major businesses: trading facilitation, on-chain services, and asset management, and plans to increase compliance investments, the current high valuation's reasonableness is widely questioned in the context of low token valuation, continuous losses, and limited market share. Whether it can digest the valuation bubble through business synergy remains uncertain.
$BTC
On December 17, HashKey Holdings Limited (stock code 3887.HK) officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange main board, becoming the first digital asset enterprise to be publicly issued in Hong Kong, with an opening market capitalization of HKD 18.527 billion (approximately USD 2.38 billion). The global offering was priced at HKD 6.68 per share, close to the upper limit of the offering range, attracting nine cornerstone investors including UBS Asset Management Singapore, Fidelity, and Dinghui Investment. However, beneath the glamorous surface, the issue of valuation bubble is particularly prominent.
The core contradiction lies in the severe disconnect between the company's market capitalization and the valuation of its ecological tokens — its HSK token is currently valued at only USD 290 million, while the market capitalization upon listing is actually 8.2 times the token valuation, with a premium that far exceeds the industry's conventional level. More critically, the earnings fundamentals are unable to support such a high valuation: from 2022 to 2024, the company accumulated a net loss of over HKD 2.35 billion, and in the first half of 2025, it still reported a loss of HKD 507 million, with revenue in the first half declining by 26% year-on-year and trading volume sharply down by 38.4%. Profitability continues to weaken, with gross margin dropping from 97.2% in 2022 to 65% in the first half of 2025, and R&D expenses accounting for as much as 77.2% in 2024, resulting in significant cost pressure.
Market competitiveness is also lacking, with HashKey's global digital asset trading market share at only 1% and on-chain service market share at less than 1%, showing a stark gap compared to leading institutions. In comparison to Coinbase's industry status and user scale corresponding to its market capitalization of USD 72 billion, HashKey's valuation of USD 2.38 billion lacks support, and Hong Kong has already issued 11 virtual asset trading licenses, leading to increasingly fierce industry competition. Although the company is laying out three major businesses: trading facilitation, on-chain services, and asset management, and plans to increase compliance investments, the current high valuation's reasonableness is widely questioned in the context of low token valuation, continuous losses, and limited market share. Whether it can digest the valuation bubble through business synergy remains uncertain.
$BTC
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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