Brothers, stop staring at the candlestick charts uselessly! Tonight at 21:30, the real ‘big news’ in the crypto circle is not the wild fluctuations of a certain asset, but rather a ‘smoke bomb’ wrapped in data that the United States is about to throw out: the combination of November's non-farm payroll and the incomplete October data. To be honest, the credibility of this thing is so low that even the vegetable market aunties wouldn't trust it, and rather than being an economic indicator, it's more of a blatant market stress test. As someone who has been in the game for eight years, I can confidently say: the core tonight is not guessing numbers, but betting on the ‘downside risks’ that Powell mentions. Will the true face reveal itself amidst this data fog? And our crypto market is destined to be the first to be grilled on the fire!
Let me give some solid information to the newcomers, don't get confused by the fragmented information online. Why is this data considered 'subpar'? The root cause is the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which directly caused the household survey in October to completely fall apart. Key indicators like unemployment rate and labor force participation rate have shown 'gaps' for the first time since records began in 1948; even if the statistics bureau wanted to fill them, they couldn't. Even more absurd, while the November data can barely be released, the statistics bureau itself admits that the statistical variance is higher than usual, simply put, 'the margin of error might be large, so just make do with it'. Adding to this, over 100,000 federal employees left their jobs around this time, directly mixing a lot of sand into the non-farm data, with institutional predictions ranging from a 10,000 increase to a 30,000 decrease in employment, creating a divergence comparable to a fierce battle between bulls and bears. In this situation, still being concerned about whether the data looks good or not is no different than buying big or small with your eyes closed.
Here's the key point: this pile of distorted data essentially serves as a 'stress test' for the global market. Powell was still mumbling last week that the downside risks in the labor market are more severe than expected, even hinting that the current employment data may overestimate 60,000 jobs each month, and the real situation could be zero growth or even negative growth. This isn't said lightly; if tonight's data shows even a hint of 'weakness', the market will immediately bet on the Fed continuing to ease next year. However, if the data unexpectedly comes out 'strong', the previous rate cut expectations will flip on the spot. Our crypto market is as sensitive to liquidity as a cat is to fish; the tightening and loosening of global funds directly determines the ceiling for mainstream assets. Remember the last time the non-farm data had contradictory appearances? Bitcoin fluctuated 2,000 points back and forth within half an hour, with both sides fighting fiercely. In the end, it was still because the liquidity expectations were not settled, stuck in a range without moving. Tonight, this scenario is likely to replay.
Let me insert my core viewpoint: don't blindly believe any single data point! Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are already in a heated argument; one says October employment can increase by 10,000, while the other says it will drop by 30,000. My advice is to focus on three signals: first, private sector employment data (excluding government layoffs, which is the real barometer of the economy); second, whether the unemployment rate in November breaks the critical threshold of 4.6% (if it does, it's solid evidence of downside risk); third, the speed of market reaction. If the market surges and then quickly drops after the data comes out, it indicates that funds are observing and no consensus has formed. After all, the logic has changed; 'bad data could be good news'. As long as there is no uncontrollable deterioration, a weak but not collapsing non-farm payroll could actually provide more liquidity space for the crypto market.
Finally, let's clarify with the brothers: don't operate recklessly tonight. Don't panic about cutting losses if you're holding positions, and don't chase the highs if you're out of the market. Instead of being a victim in the market, it's better to sit back and observe, to see how this data drama unfolds. Do you think tonight's data will lean towards 'easing expectations' or 'tightening warnings'? Will Bitcoin break the current fluctuation range? Leave your predictions in the comments, and I'll specifically review the data tomorrow, uncovering the intricacies behind the data and the flow of funds.
