Having mixed in the cryptocurrency circle for a full decade, counting this wave, it’s already the fourth time accompanying the market through bull and bear phases. To be honest, the biological clock of this circle is too accurate; it’s a four-year cycle, with three years of grinding at the bottom, and only one year can you truly feast.
Moreover, this year's bull market particularly emphasizes 'rhythm'. The first eight months were basically all 'fakes', rising for two days and falling for three, cleansing those who lacked patience. Many people, after enduring until now, left cursing, feeling that 'this is not a bull market, it’s even more tormenting than a bear market'. But if you truly hold on, you will understand what 'pulling onions from dry ground' means in the last two months, where the final two months are about slowly building a top, giving you the final signal to get on or off the bus.
Many people ask me, 'Is it a bull or bear market now?' My personal view is very clear: strictly speaking, this round of market opened in October 2023, and we are now firmly in the middle of a bull market, not at the end at all. According to past patterns, the 'shelf life' of a bull market is roughly another five months, and the real explosive period that can double your account numbers has not arrived yet.
I boldly guess that the wave of market that can keep people awake at night is likely to start in June or July this year, and will continue until around October 2025 before it stops. Let me put it bluntly: this is not a hard rule; it's an experience I've gathered from analyzing the past ten years of K-line data, for reference only. If you lose money, don't come looking for me.
But if you ask me whether I believe in this rule? I do. This circle has never had the myth of 'always rising' nor the despair of 'always falling'; it has developed too quickly, too fast to complete self-iteration without extreme methods. Think about it, if it really can catch up with the market value of gold, relying on slow growth is simply impossible; it must have several waves of strong surges to achieve that leap.
That's why I say, 'Once every four years, and it lasts for three to four months.' Many people have endured for four years, only to finally fall into the trap of 'just wait a little longer.' Money in this circle has never been made slowly; the real monetary gains are all concentrated in those three to four months. If you miss this period, all the previous suffering will be in vain, and you might even end up losing your principal.
Conversely, the bear market is equally ruthless. It must use the 'knife' of a sharp decline to eliminate all scams, garbage projects, and speculators who only want to make quick money. This circle values efficiency the most and was built on enhancing financial efficiency, leaving no room for any bubbles. So every time a bear market starts, my actions are particularly simple: aside from BTC and ETH, everything else is completely liquidated without hesitation.
After so many years of observation, the only asset that can truly traverse one bull and bear market after another might just be BTC, while others, no matter how popular, are likely just accompanying runners. Don't be superstitious about what 'the next BTC' is; if you can protect your principal and wait for the market that belongs to you, you have already outperformed 90% of people.
Finally, let me say something from the heart: what you should do now is not to keep staring at the market and switching positions every day, nor to be misled by those 'insider news' and act recklessly, but to maintain your mindset and wait for the wind to come. Be patient, that wave of violent market that can completely turn your account numbers upside down is really not far away.
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