Buying at the bottom while halfway up the hill is not as good as quietly observing the changes. The most profitable periods in the crypto space are often the shortest and most intense. As a veteran of the crypto market with nearly ten years of experience, I have witnessed three transitions between bull and bear markets. Each market cycle is like an expensive economics class, with a hefty tuition fee, but it has gradually helped me discern the true rhythm of the market. The current wave that started in October 2023 is in a typical halftime phase. Bitcoin is fluctuating in the 110000-120000 dollar range, while Ethereum has strongly broken through its previous high, which is a classic sign of the mid-stage of a bull market as funds begin to rotate from Bitcoin to high-quality assets.
The three-phase rhythm of the bull market will not change
Looking back at history, the crypto bull market has always followed a clear 'three-phase' evolution pattern: the early bull is dominated by Bitcoin, the middle bull sees the rise of Ethereum and mainstream coins, and the late bull is a carnival for altcoins. In the 2017 bull market, Ethereum surged 15 times during the middle phase due to the ICO boom, far exceeding Bitcoin's 3-fold increase. The 2021 cycle was similar, with Ethereum achieving a 10-fold increase during the middle phase, clearly outperforming Bitcoin.
The current market conditions fully align with this pattern: Bitcoin started its rise from a low point at the beginning of 2023 and is now in a consolidation phase; meanwhile, Ethereum has recently broken through its previous high of $4000, showing relative strength. This differentiation is healthy and indicates that market risk appetite is steadily increasing, but it has not yet entered the final frenzy phase.
How is this bull market different from previous ones?
Compared to the 2021 'street party' characterized by NFTs and 'play-to-earn', the 2025 bull market resembles a 'formal dinner' where institutionalization and compliance have become the main themes. The tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), institutional DeFi, and the integration of artificial intelligence with crypto technology have become the new narrative. The approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs allows traditional funds to enter the market more conveniently, changing the way funds flow in.
The clarity of regulation is also an important difference. Supportive policies for cryptocurrencies are being introduced one after another, in sharp contrast to the regulatory uncertainty of 2021.
How long can the bull market last?
According to historical data, the middle phase of the bull market lasted 6 months in 2017 and 3-5 months in 2021. This bull market, which started in July 2025, may last until September-October. This means the real frenzy bull market may still be ahead. According to historical patterns, bull markets often experience explosive increases in the last 2-4 months, which is the stage where investors can profit the most and also the stage with the highest risk.
Some analysts believe Bitcoin may break through $150,000 or even $200,000. But I must emphasize that the market will never simply repeat history; the deep involvement of institutional funds may give this cycle different characteristics.
My response strategy
At this stage, I adhere to the following principles: maintain patience and not chase short-term trends. During periods of market differentiation, calmly observing is more important than blind trading.
Steadily allocate ETH and high-quality mainstream coins. In the middle phase, these assets usually perform better.
Firmly avoid obviously fraudulent altcoin projects. The bull market is the best time for project teams to sell; many worthless projects will be liquidated during this period.
Position management is key. I will not fully enter the market at this stage, nor will I remain on the sidelines; I will maintain a position level that makes me feel 'at ease'.
Set clear goals and stop-loss points. The most common mistake in a bull market is 'greed'; I will plan my exit strategy in advance.
Efficiency is paramount in the crypto world. In a four-year cycle, the truly profitable periods often last only a few months. What we need to do now is preserve our strength and wait for the most intense market wave to arrive.
A bull market is born in pessimism, grows in doubt, matures in optimism, and dies in frenzy. The current market sentiment is far from a frenzy stage, which means we still have time to prepare.
Veterans understand that the crypto market does not only rise or fall; it does not only fall or rise. Grasping the rhythm is more important than holding long-term. Now, what we need is to patiently wait for that final explosive phase to arrive.
Where do you think the peak of this bull market will be? Feel free to share your thoughts!
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