K33: Selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders approaches saturation, distribution cycle may be coming to an end

CoinVoice has recently learned that a report released yesterday by research and brokerage firm K33 indicates that the selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders is approaching a saturation stage, and on-chain selling pressure is expected to gradually ease. Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, pointed out that since 2024, the supply of Bitcoin held for more than two years has been continuously declining, with approximately 1.6 million BTC being reactivated and flowing into the market, valued at about 138 billion dollars at current prices, reflecting the ongoing on-chain sales by early holders. Lunde believes that this scale has clearly exceeded what can be explained by technical migration or structural adjustments, showing substantial distribution behavior. The report states that 2024 and 2025 will become the second and third highest years for the long-term supply of Bitcoin to be re-circulated in history, second only to 2017. Unlike the distribution cycle of that year driven by ICOs, altcoin trading, and incentivization mechanisms, this round of selling is more about long-term holders directly converting deep liquidity into realized gains due to the demand for U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs and corporate financial needs. Looking ahead, K33 expects the selling pressure to gradually diminish. Lunde stated that approximately 20% of the Bitcoin supply has been reactivated over the past two years, and the on-chain selling pressure is expected to approach saturation, with the supply of Bitcoin held for over two years potentially ending the current downward trend in 2026 and exceeding the current level of about 12,160,000 BTC. Additionally, K33 also pointed out the potential asset allocation rebalancing effect that may occur at the end of the quarter and the beginning of the new quarter. Given that Bitcoin has significantly underperformed other assets in the fourth quarter, funds with fixed allocation ratios may be reallocated at the end of the year and early next year, which could bring a phase of capital inflow to the market.[Original link]