Odaily Planet Daily News: Research and brokerage firm K33 stated in a report released yesterday that the selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders is approaching saturation after years of distribution, and on-chain selling pressure is expected to gradually ease.
K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde pointed out that since 2024, the supply of Bitcoin held for more than two years has been continuously declining, with approximately 1.6 million BTC reactivated and flowing into the market, valued at about $138 billion at current prices, reflecting the ongoing on-chain sales by early holders. Lunde believes that this scale has clearly exceeded what can be explained by technical migration or structural adjustments, indicating substantial distribution behavior.
The report states that 2024 and 2025 will become the second and third highest years for the long-term supply of Bitcoin to be re-circulated in history, second only to 2017. Unlike the distribution cycle driven by ICOs, altcoin trading, and incentive mechanisms back then, this round of sell-off is more about long-term holders directly realizing deep liquidity gains due to demand from Bitcoin spot ETFs and corporate financial needs in the United States.
Looking ahead, K33 expects selling pressure to gradually ease. Lunde stated that about 20% of the Bitcoin supply has been reactivated over the past two years, and the on-chain selling pressure is expected to approach saturation. The supply of Bitcoin held for more than two years may end the current downward trend by 2026 and exceed the current level of approximately 12,160,000 BTC. Additionally, K33 points out the potential asset allocation rebalancing effect that may occur at the end of the quarter and the beginning of the new quarter. Given that Bitcoin has significantly underperformed other assets in the fourth quarter, funds with fixed allocation ratios may be reallocated at the end of the year and the beginning of next year, which could bring temporary capital inflows to the market.
