12.17 Evening Market Analysis Key Data Before High Volatility Window

Good evening, brothers.

Current market summary in one sentence: The direction is unclear, but risks are accumulating quickly.

Yesterday's unemployment rate was higher than expected, macro factors are slightly favorable, but BTC has hardly reacted, and the reason is clear

Funds are waiting for greater uncertainties to settle.

This week, there are two key events that could trigger market volatility.

1. Tomorrow evening at 21:30 CPI data

Higher than expected: bearish for risk assets

Lower than expected: bullish for BTC

What truly affects the market is not the direction, but the degree of deviation.

Only significant outperformance will trigger trend volatility.

2. Friday's Bank of Japan interest rate decision

Rate hike of 25bp (approximately 70% probability): limited impact, already priced in

Exceeding 50bp (approximately 30% probability): clearly bearish

If the rate hike exceeds expectations, BTC may fall below $85,000, testing the $82,000 range.

3. Market Conclusion

The closer we get to the data release, the weaker the BTC structure becomes, and emotions and volatility will be amplified.

However, this decline is more about liquidity release than a trend reversal.

If CPI is favorable and the Bank of Japan's decision lands, BTC is expected to return to $90,000+ for recovery.

4. Trading Suggestions

Do not heavily bet on direction before data

Avoid emotional sell-offs

Preserve capital, wait for opportunities after extreme volatility

The market is not short of opportunities,

Survive to see the trend.

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