12.17 Evening Market Analysis Key Data Before High Volatility Window
Good evening, brothers.
Current market summary in one sentence: The direction is unclear, but risks are accumulating quickly.
Yesterday's unemployment rate was higher than expected, macro factors are slightly favorable, but BTC has hardly reacted, and the reason is clear
Funds are waiting for greater uncertainties to settle.
This week, there are two key events that could trigger market volatility.
1. Tomorrow evening at 21:30 CPI data
Higher than expected: bearish for risk assets
Lower than expected: bullish for BTC
What truly affects the market is not the direction, but the degree of deviation.
Only significant outperformance will trigger trend volatility.
2. Friday's Bank of Japan interest rate decision
Rate hike of 25bp (approximately 70% probability): limited impact, already priced in
Exceeding 50bp (approximately 30% probability): clearly bearish
If the rate hike exceeds expectations, BTC may fall below $85,000, testing the $82,000 range.
3. Market Conclusion
The closer we get to the data release, the weaker the BTC structure becomes, and emotions and volatility will be amplified.
However, this decline is more about liquidity release than a trend reversal.
If CPI is favorable and the Bank of Japan's decision lands, BTC is expected to return to $90,000+ for recovery.
4. Trading Suggestions
Do not heavily bet on direction before data
Avoid emotional sell-offs
Preserve capital, wait for opportunities after extreme volatility
The market is not short of opportunities,
Survive to see the trend.
$POWER $ICNT #BinanceABCs #巨鲸动向 #美国讨论BTC战略储备




