Bitcoin’s derivatives order flow suggests traders are positioning for a wide but contained range between roughly $85,000 and $100,000 rather than a dramatic surge or crash. Options activity on Deribit, tracked by market maker Wintermute, shows heavy put-selling around the $85,000 strike — a signal of confidence that BTC won’t fall below that level in the near term. That $85k put is the second-most popular option across all expiries, with notional open interest of over $2 billion. (Notional open interest is the dollar value of active contracts; on Deribit one options contract = one BTC.) When many traders sell puts at the same strike, they often act as de facto buyers in the spot or futures markets if prices approach that level, creating a self-reinforcing support. At the other end, holders are writing call options — “overwrites” — around $95,000–$100,000. Sellers collect premiums but are obliged to deliver BTC if the price breaks past those strikes, which can add selling pressure as spot nears those levels. The $100,000 call is currently the single most popular play, with about $2.37 billion in notional open interest. Together, these positions form a range where put sellers defend the downside and call sellers cap the upside. “Strong put-selling support around 85k (then 80k/75k as secondary buffers), while call overwrites cap upside around 95k–100k. Vol is being harvested inside this band,” Wintermute Desk Strategist Jasper De Maere wrote in an email. That “volatility harvesting” is the crux: traders are selling both puts and calls to pocket premium income, effectively betting on muted volatility. If Bitcoin trades sideways, options tend to decay and expire worthless, allowing sellers to keep premiums and reinforcing the range. Implication: with meaningful open interest concentrated at $85k on the downside and $95k–$100k on the upside, a sustained, rapid push into six figures could face significant friction from option sellers. As of writing, BTC was trading around $87,400, according to CoinDesk data. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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