Recently, when hearing 'Bank of Japan raises interest rates', many people's first reaction is: It's over, gold and silver are going to crash.
But to be honest, this kind of judgment itself is somewhat 'conditioned reflex', and does not truly understand the market.
To conclude: Raising interest rates ≠ gold and silver must fall.
Historically, after Japan raises interest rates, gold and silver do not fall every time; instead, there are more cases where they rise. The key is not 'whether to raise interest rates', but how to raise them and whether the market is scared or not.
There are two simple situations:
The first situation, the one that is most likely to scare people
If Japan suddenly comes out with an 'unexpected rate hike', without any forewarning, directly shocking the market, it could indeed trigger a significant drop in global risk assets.
At times like this, it’s not that gold and silver are worthless, but rather that everything will be sold off first; everyone needs cash to maintain liquidity, and gold and silver may also be mistakenly hit in the short term.
But note that such declines are generally not lasting; once the panic passes and risk aversion rises, gold and silver often rise the fastest.
The second type, which is more similar to this situation.
The interest rate hike has long been anticipated by the market; the pace is moderate, and everyone has an understanding.
In such a case, the market won’t panic, the stock market won’t crash, and there’s no logic of 'being forced to sell everything.'
On the contrary, there are several friendly points for gold and silver:
Yen arbitrage funds are returning; with Japan's interest rate hike, the dollar is likely to weaken.
When the dollar weakens, gold and silver often perform well.
Moreover, Japan's debt load is too large; the interest rate hike itself will make the market worry about fiscal pressure, and naturally, there will be buyers for safe-haven assets.
Back to Japan's interest rate hike in December
To put it bluntly, the market has known about this for months; the expectations have already been digested.
Furthermore, the Japanese government’s attitude towards continuing interest rate hikes is also very cautious, which determines that it is highly unlikely to step on the gas pedal all the way in the future.
So in my view, this time Japan's interest rate hike is really unnecessary to scare ourselves; it’s not a bearish factor for gold and silver, but rather slightly bullish.
Lastly, let me remind you, don't be swayed by others saying 'Japan's interest rate hike will cause gold and silver to crash.'
The market has never operated on slogans; understanding the logic is more important than just hearing the noise.#加密市场观察 #美联储降息 #现货黄金创历史新高 $BTC
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