After weeks of pressure, the Solana price is going silent. SOL has lost about 10% of its value in the last 30 days, but has been nearly flat in the last 24 hours; moreover, while the broader cryptocurrency market is losing strength. This pause is noteworthy.
Solana is trying to reach institutional investors in Brazil through Valour's Solana ETP (Exchange Traded Product). The product is expected to be listed on the B3 cryptocurrency exchange. This move creates a stable channel for regulated demand, even though break signals are seen in the charts. All eyes are now on this question: Will the current environment help Solana overcome its technical challenges, or is the trend still in the hands of sellers?
ETP Hype: Expectations in a Falling Structure
Valour's Solana ETP provides Brazilian investors and institutions with regulated access to SOL. While it may not have a significant impact on price in the short term, it creates a stable absorption during periods of selling pressure. This is particularly important when decisive formations are present on the charts. Additionally, it can create an emotional trigger effect in an environment where each asset is searching for its own narrative.
From a technical perspective, Solana is moving in a sloped head-and-shoulders structure. However, it does not fully conform to the classical formation. The downward sloping neckline requires stronger confirmation for a breakout because sellers continue to exert pressure from lower levels each time.
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However, some positive signs are also emerging on the buyer's side. These signals could push back sellers and create hope for a clean neckline breakout in Solana's price.
A Quiet Accumulation Emerges When Delved Deeper
While the price fluctuates, on-chain data reveals early signals of accumulation.
The share of supply held by the group of investors who hold positions between 3 and 6 months has significantly increased. This group held 11.756% of the supply on November 16, while this rate rose to 16.126% as of December 16. This sharp increase in just one month shows that medium-term investors come into play during periods of weakness.
At the same time, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) also sends a positive signal. Between November 3 and December 15, Solana's price formed a lower low, but the CMF made a higher low. This divergence indicates that even if the price moves downwards, buying pressure is accumulating in the background.
However, the CMF is still below zero. This indicates that large capital is acting cautiously. Although buyers are present in the market, they are still staying away from strong moves. All these signals suggest that positions are only beginning to be taken, and no definitive confirmation has been formed.
Levels Determining the Next Move in Solana Price
The price of Solana now carries the full weight of the story. The first level to watch is $141. Regaining this level means breaking the sloped neckline, but it does not ensure a trend reversal on its own. Remember: a sloped neckline requires stronger confirmation.
Therefore, the main critical level is $153. A daily close above $153 will confirm that buyers have broken the sloped structure and will pave the way for the price to move towards higher resistances.
In possible downturns, $121 continues to be a critical support. Falling below this level would invalidate the accumulation and breakout thesis, and draw attention back to downward movements.
