Tom Lee recently stated that the price of Bitcoin could exceed $100,000 before the end of 2025. This is quite a bold prediction, especially as the price of Bitcoin appears to be moving sideways and the momentum seems to have faded. At first glance, the market does not seem ready. Large inflows of money have weakened, long-term investors are selling, and price movements are quite compressed.
However, there is still a way to make Tom Lee's prediction possible: New purchases are not required, positioning is important.
Big Money and Stability Holders Still Create Obstacles
As highlighted in CNBC, the first issue regarding Tom Lee's Bitcoin price prediction stems from capital flows.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which tracks whether large capital is entering the cryptocurrency market, is still showing weakness. Between December 17 and December 23, the Bitcoin price moved slightly upward, but the CMF trended downward. This is a downward signal. Although big players continue to hold the price, they are reducing their positions.
After December 21, CMF values rapidly collapsed, falling by more than 200% and experiencing a recovery of about 68%. Although this recovery seems hopeful, the CMF is still below zero. This means the market is still deprived of strong capital inflows.
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The second wind is being blown by long-term investors. Historically, these wallets are known for slow, late selling.
In the last month, the net position change of long-term investors has sharply turned negative. On November 23, long-term investors were selling about 97,800 BTC per day, while on December 23, this figure reached nearly 279,000 BTC in just one day. This represents an increase of 185%.
This figure represents record-level selling from stable investors. With both large capital outflows and the selling tendencies of long-term investors combining, it becomes difficult for prices to rise permanently.
The Only Way for Bitcoin to Reach $100,000
Despite all these negatives, hope for Bitcoin is not yet exhausted. However, this hope relies on an unexpected factor.
The market is significantly weighted towards short, or bearish positions.
Looking at the last 30 days, the cumulative short liquidations' leverage size is around $3.41 billion. The leverage size of long, or bullish liquidations, is close to $2.14 billion. This means that more than 60% of total leverage positions have been met with bearish pricing.
The importance of this is as follows: Even if buying pressure is weak, mandatory liquidations can cause the Bitcoin price to rise just as in the past. In short, Bitcoin needs the shorts to be wrong, not new buyers.
A sharp rise in price triggers the closing of short positions, which automatically activates buy orders. So even if buying pressure is low, in such cases, liquidations can continue to multiply.
These days, this seems to be the only realistic scenario for a rapid rise. Additionally, the most intense part of the short position liquidation pool is found in the range of $88,390 to $96,070. Now all eyes are on whether the BTC price can rise to this area.
Bitcoin Price Levels: Is Tom Lee Right?
For a squeeze in short positions to begin, Bitcoin must surpass certain levels.
The first significant area is around $91,220. A sustained move above this level will start to liquidate low-leverage short positions. This alone will increase momentum in the short term.
The real breakthrough is hidden at the boundary of $97,820. The price has been halted at this level several times since mid-November, and the most intense short liquidation has accumulated here. If this area is surpassed, the $3.41 billion short leverage will be at great risk.
If this chain reaction occurs, Bitcoin could quickly reach the psychological level of $100,380 without strong capital inflow or long-term investor support. However, this scenario also has a clear point of refutation.
If Bitcoin cannot regain $91,220 and continues to move sideways, the weakness of the CMF and the selling of long-term investors continue to dominate. In this scenario, the short squeeze does not start at all, and Tom Lee's Bitcoin price prediction becomes a dream. Currently, Bitcoin is stuck between sales made with stability and leveraged positions.
The fate of this prediction is determined by only one thing: whether the shorts will be forced to close their positions.
