The HBAR price continues to be a disappointment. The token has lost approximately 26% over the past month and nearly 67% year-on-year. This situation indicates a persistent weakness in both prices and participation. What makes the current moment significant is the level at which HBAR is trading: The price is moving towards levels last tested in October 2024. Thus, the risk of retesting multiple monthly lows is on the table.

The distortion in the chart is clearly visible, and buying pressure has collapsed steadily. However, an unusual on-chain metric suggests that the downward movement may be approaching exhaustion. But can this discrete data mean anything right now? That is the main question.

Bear Flag Breakdown: Trend Continuation Risk Signal

In the 4-hour chart, a textbook bear flag breakdown occurred in HBAR. A bear flag is known as a pattern that includes a sharp decline in price, a brief upward or sideways pause, and then a downward breakout again. This is a continuation formation, not a reversal signal.

The HBAR price briefly dipped below the flag structure around $0.109, and this movement maintained its permanence without a significant reaction.

This confirmation is important. Based on the height of the initial flagpole, the expected decline following the breakout indicates a pullback of about 28% from the upper boundary of the flag structure. This brings a target down to the $0.068 region from current levels. However, if the 4-hour candle closes above the lower trendline of the bear flag, the risk of a breakdown may weaken temporarily.

This level is very close to the low regions last seen in October-November 2024. This means that not only a short-term correction is in play, but the bottom risks that have not been seen for months have returned to the table.

The second confirmation comes from cryptocurrency exchange flow data. Buying pressure has been steadily decreasing for weeks.

On December 5th, approximately 4.09 million HBAR were withdrawn from cryptocurrency exchanges; this indicated that the appetite for buying at the bottom was continuing. However, this trend quickly weakened. As of December 24th, the net outflow amount from exchanges had dropped to only 314,830 HBAR.

This indicates more than a 92% decline in net buying pressure.

In summary: As prices decline, buyers have not emerged strongly. Although entries occasionally turned positive, it was observed that selling pressure quickly returned after small declines, signaling panic selling. The likelihood of continued downward movements increases significantly in an environment where both the bear flag breakdown and the collapse of buying pressure exist.

Therefore, it is not surprising that aggressive bottom buyers have not emerged following the breakdown. The market does not yet find this region valuable.

Investor Sentiment Contrarian: Bearish Positions Increasing

The only counterargument for the upward movement comes from investor sentiment.

The positive social sentiment index for HBAR, which peaked at 76.97 at the end of October, has now dropped to around 1.62. This indicates nearly a 98% decrease. This situation shows a significant indifference rather than panic.

Looking at past data, it is seen that short-term relief rallies have occurred at similar local bottoms. On November 9th, when the index was at the bottom, the price of HBAR rose about 12% in a single session from $0.17 to $0.19. On December 1st, another sentiment drop allowed the price to climb from $0.13 to $0.14 within two days. This also meant an increase of about 14%.

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The biggest source of hope in the market is this.

However, conditions are important. The recoveries in question have occurred during periods when selling pressure was relatively light and buying flows had not yet ceased. Today, however, while sentiment has hit a low, both the bear flag breakdown and buyer demand have almost vanished. Therefore, this signal is currently much weaker.

In weak markets, excessively negative investor sentiment can last much longer than expected.

What’s next for the HBAR price

The HBAR price is at a critical turning point. Major signals continue to lean bearish: Bear flag breakdown, collapse of buying pressure, and acceptance below key supports are occurring. As long as the price remains below $0.109, there is a risk of a decline towards both $0.079 and the $0.068 level from the 4-hour chart.

The only obstacle ahead on this path is the fatigue in investor sentiment. If negative sentiment triggers opportunistic bottom buyers again, HBAR may see a short-term relief rally. However, if buying pressure does not clearly return, this rally is unlikely to last long. It seems difficult to expect a lasting recovery unless the price reclaims the $0.155 level—the point where the downward momentum began.