【2025-12-18】BTC/USDT Dual Time Frame Trend Tracking System (Short-term Version)
1-Hour Chart - Major Direction
**Bearish Direction (Only Short Sell)**
- Price 86,126 < EMA20 (86,679) < EMA50 (87,095)
- MACD dead cross after green bars continue (DIF -288.9 < DEA -154.3, MACD -134.6)
- Has broken below the previous low 85,261
**Conclusion: Clear bearish, short sell with the trend, prohibit long sell against the trend**
5-Minute Chart - Entry Signal
**Secondary breakout short signal triggered**
- Price quickly broke down from 87,793 to 85,261 support
- A large bearish candlestick + increased volume, rebound after breaking does not exceed (small bullish did not exceed previous high)
- Current price 86,126, weak oscillation below EMA
**Entry Suggestion**:
- Current price or rebound to 85,900-86,200 (near EMA20) shows a shooting star/inverted hammer/bearish engulfing, can short sell/add position
Current Operation
**Short Position Can Chase/Hold**
- If rebounds to Fibonacci 0.618-0.786 zone (about 86,500-87,000) shows bearish patterns, can add position by 1 time (total risk ≤3%)
Risk Control Settings
- **Stop Loss**: Recent swing high point ≈87,793 (or above rebound high point), single trade risk 1.5%
- **Take Profit**:
- 50% position: 2R (about 83,000-83,500)
- Remaining 50%: Fibonacci extension 1.272/1.618 (target 82,000-80,000 zone)
**Summary: Bearish trend established, prioritize trading with the trend, strict stop loss.**$BTC
