Large holders and market makers dumped hundreds of thousands of BTC from October to December 2025. The drop is beneficial for those who take profits, re-enter lower, or hedge risks.
Who dumped a large amount of BTC
- Long-term holders withdrew about 400,000 BTC from storage in October 2025 — this is equivalent to $45 billion.
- Medium and large holders (from 100 to 10,000 BTC) actively took profits after the mid-year rise.
- Institutional investors reduced activity after the price drop in October, preferring to go to cash due to regulatory pressure and macro-level uncertainty.
- Market makers, including Wintermute, also participated in sell-offs to balance risks in low liquidity conditions.
--Who benefits from the decline in BTC
- For profit-takers: those who bought at the bottom in 2022–2023 had the opportunity to sell for $100K+.
- For large players and funds looking to re-enter lower: sell at high prices followed by buying back in a panic.
- To short sellers and hedge funds that opened short positions: a drop to $85K brought millions in liquidations.
- To regulators and traditional banks looking to cool down the crypto market and tighten control: tightening rules in the US and EU coincided with the start of sell-offs.
- For players with insider access: they might have known in advance about the decline in liquidity, interest rate hikes in Japan, and other macro factors affecting BTC.
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📉 Reasons for BTC's decline
- Taking profits after a rise to $110K+.
- Macroeconomic risks: expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and uncertainty in the US.
- Cascade of liquidations after breaking $90K — over $200 million liquidated in a day.
- Low liquidity on weekends increased volatility.
- Technical breakout of key support levels ($90K, then $85K).
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Portfolio scenarios
$10K — conservative accumulator
- DCA: $500 weekly for 20 weeks.
- Reserve: $2K (20%) to hold in stablecoins for buying more during a drop >15%.
- Hedge: not recommended due to the small amount; instead, use stop orders and discipline.
- Goal: long-term hold of 3–5 years, rebalance every 6 months.
$50K — balanced approach
- DCA: $2,500 weekly for 20 weeks or $5,000 weekly for 10 weeks.
- Reserve: $10K (20%) for averaging down during drops >20%.
- Hedge: put options or short positions on 10–20% of the portfolio to protect against sharp declines (requires experience).
- Rebalance: every 3 months; take profits in portions when growth >50%.
$100K — active management
- DCA: $5,000 weekly for 20 weeks.
- Reserve: $20K (20%); additionally hold $10K (10%) in liquid altcoins or stablecoins for arbitrage.
- Hedge: combine put options and partial shorts; risk limit on hedge — 5–10% of capital.
- Tactics: take 20–30% profit at each rally + rebalance.
Risk management and exit rules
- Maximum risk per trade: 1–2% of capital in active trading.
- Psychological rule: do not buy 'everything to zero' — leave a reserve.
- Stop losses: for short-term positions; for long-term holds — use mental stops and hedges.
- Taxes and fees: consider exchange fees and potential tax liabilities when realizing profits.
1. Choose an exchange/wallet with low fees and good liquidity.
2. Set up automatic purchases according to the chosen DCA schedule.
3. Define the reserve and buying rules (for example, buy an additional 25% of the reserve during a 15% drop, another 25% at 30%).
4. Document the plan and stick to it without emotional decisions.
