Author: Blockchain Knight
The first quarter of 2026 brings new expectations for Bitcoin, driven not by the launch of bank stablecoins, but by the accelerated opening of traditional wealth channels. Vanguard Group and Bank of America have successively relaxed restrictions on crypto investments, and combined with seasonal benefits, this is expected to hedge against market turbulence at the end of 2025.
Vanguard Group, managing $11 trillion in assets, lifted its ban on crypto investments in early December, opening up spot ETF trading for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and more to 50 million clients. Although it does not issue its own crypto products, its large retail coverage capacity injects potential incremental growth into the market.
Bank of America will allow Merrill Lynch and private banking advisors to actively recommend crypto ETPs starting January 5, guiding suitable clients to allocate 1%-4% of assets to mainstream U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, which means that hundreds of billions of dollars in wealth previously excluded will gain access.
According to River data statistics, nearly 60% of the 25 large banks in the U.S. are currently at some stage of direct sales, custody, or providing Bitcoin consulting services.
Buyers at the beginning of 2026 are more likely to be retirement accounts adding 2% Bitcoin positions rather than highly leveraged crypto funds.
Since 2013, the average return rate for Bitcoin in February is about 15%, with an average increase of over 50% in Q1, but Q1 of 2025 recorded the worst performance in a decade (a drop of 12%), confirming that the pattern is not absolute.
Current market expectations have been revised downward, with Standard Chartered lowering its Bitcoin target for 2026 from $300,000 to $150,000, with rebounds relying more on actual capital inflows rather than momentum chasing.
Additionally, the proposed rule released on December 16 paves the way for state bank subsidiaries to issue "payment stablecoins," requiring 1:1 reserves as backing and prohibiting arbitrary re-pledging, among other stipulations.
However, this rule requires 60 days of public consultation and may not be implemented until the end of 2026, forming scale in 2027, having no substantial impact on Q1.
However, its long-term value is significant; compliant stablecoins issued by banks can become settlement assets for ETF market makers, deepening the liquidity of the derivatives market and establishing public chains as credible settlement layers for institutions.
Therefore, the Q1 market has turned into a mathematical formula: how many clients will Vanguard Group add with a 1%-2% Bitcoin position, and how much capital inflow can Bank of America channels bring?
