I rely not on predictions, but on the clumsy method of 'reading the chart.'
I often have friends message me: 'Why can you always catch the rhythm right, while my operations feel like gambling?'
Don't rush, I won't hold back today; I'll share a secret I've used for five years, but most people have never truly understood: if you only focus on one candlestick cycle, you've basically already lost half.
I find that many people lose money in the crypto space, not due to a lack of patience, but rather 'too much effort': jumping in and out on the 1-hour chart, fantasizing about getting rich on the 15-minute line. As a result, when the trend comes, they are directly rolled under the wheels.
1. First, look at the big picture: The 4-hour chart is the 'navigation instrument.'
I have a habit: every time I open the trading software, I first brew a cup of tea and pull up the 4-hour chart to look at it for ten minutes.
Don't laugh, these ten minutes can save your account.
If the highs are getting higher and the lows are also getting higher, the trend is saying 'I want to go up.' At this moment, a pullback is not a risk, but an opportunity;
If the highs are getting lower and the lows are also getting lower, the market is telling you 'hurry up and rest,' and rebounds are mostly traps; if your hands are itchy, just cut them;
If the candlestick is going back and forth like Tai Chi, congratulations, you've entered the 'fee harvesting period.' The more diligent you are at this time, the happier the exchange will be.
Remember one thing: going against the trend is like spitting at a tornado.
The market cycle itself goes through four stages: accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown. Identifying the current stage is crucial. For instance, Bitcoin's dominance increasing often means that the market structure is still driven by institutional capital, while the explosion of altcoins may need to wait for this trend to reverse.
2. Find the position again: The 1-hour chart is the 'sniper scope.'
Once the direction is set, we need to find a good position to 'stake out.' The support and resistance on the 1-hour chart, along with the arrangement of moving averages, are your map coordinates:
In an uptrend, the price steadily stands above the key moving averages, and each pullback is a 'polite invitation.'
If the price rushes near the previous high but hesitates to break through, it's mostly because 'there's not enough strength.' Jumping in at this point easily turns into catching a falling knife.
I've seen too many people who got the direction right but chased it at the peak—if the position is wrong, no matter how good the trend is, it’s all in vain.
According to historical data, the median price increase in a bull market can reach up to 15 times, but it will go through multiple corrections exceeding 5%. This means that even if you're correct in the big direction, the choice of entry position will directly determine whether you can withstand these inevitable fluctuations.
3. Finally, pull the trigger: The 15-minute chart is the 'starting gun.'
A real good opportunity often just requires waiting for that moment.
Look at the patterns: engulfing, divergence, golden cross; these fancy names essentially mean the market is saying 'I'm ready.'
Look at the volume: an increase in volume is sincere, a decrease is a tactic, and false breakouts love to play 'quiet sneak attacks.'
My principle is simple: trend, position, signal, all three must come together before taking action; if one is missing, just consider it a show. (If you often lose money due to impatience, make this sentence your phone wallpaper.)
It should be noted that specific risks such as the depegging events of stablecoins (like USDT) will significantly increase the probability and magnitude of market fluctuations. Stay alert to the macro environment when pulling the trigger.
4. Let's talk about something practical: cycle and rhythm.
I know you want to see 'which coin will rise tomorrow,' but compared to this, establishing your own observation rhythm is more important. The cryptocurrency market has its cyclicality; for example, a bull market often presents a so-called 'three-wave' structure: first Bitcoin rises, then capital rotates to mainstream tracks, and finally, the altcoin frenzy. If you can't distinguish the trend or find the buy and sell points, don’t rush to place an order; first, understand the logic of multi-cycle interactions.
The market is never short of opportunities; what’s lacking is the eye to see the opportunities. I often tell my community friends: 'Slow is fast, less is more.' In the crypto world, surviving long is the hard truth.
If you feel like you're always lost in the market, why not try this 'clumsy method'? Follow Xiang Ge to learn more firsthand information and precise points in the crypto space; becoming your guide in the crypto world, learning is your greatest wealth!#巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察 $ETH
