I am an old investor who entered the circle in 2015. I have experienced liquidation, made mistakes, and even turned ten times overnight. But what truly allows me to survive until now is not the myth of getting rich, but a set of extremely simple rules—filtering out 99% of pitfalls and only earning understandable money. Today I will share it all, suitable for ordinary people who do not want to stay up late watching the market and hate risks.
1. Filter coins: three steps to cut out the noise, leaving only the 'capital + trend' dual engines
I never believe in 100x coins because the data says: 80% of losses come from choosing the wrong targets. Now my selection process is like an assembly line, completely cold-blooded:
Strong pool mining: every day take a glance at the list of the top 50 by percentage increase over the last 11 trading days. Being in this pool means there is short-term speculation with funds, which is 10 times more reliable than listening to calls in niche communities. But remember: the top three coins on the increase list are likely to diverge the next day, so don't chase blindly!
Eliminate top escape signals: those that drop for three consecutive days should be directly marked off! This is not a washout; it's a typical signal of capital offloading. For example, in 2024 during the meme coin frenzy, many coins rose high and then fell by over 30%, with the buyers all being retail investors seeking bargains.
Monthly line determines life and death: only keep stocks with the monthly MACD at the bottom golden cross. The monthly line represents the big trend and can filter out 90% of false moves. For example, when SOL was bottoming this year, after the monthly MACD golden cross, it doubled in three months — the bull-bear dividing line is not just talk.
My selfishness: coins outside the top 100 by market cap and with daily trading volume below 10 million U, I directly give up. Poor liquidity means you can't escape even if you want to, destined to be cut.
2. Buying point: Recognize one signal — 'retrace to the life line + increased volume'
I've seen too many people struggle with 'buying too early for fear of being trapped, buying too late for fear of missing out'; in fact, there is only one best buying point: daily line retracing to the 60-day moving average, with trading volume increasing by more than 1.2 times.
Logic: The 60-day line is the mid-term capital cost line; a retracement indicates exhausted selling pressure; increased volume proves new capital is entering.
Case: Last year, a mainstream coin dropped from $300 to $265, precisely hitting the 60-day line, with trading volume increasing by 1.3 times that day. I decisively entered, gaining a 40% increase in 20 days.
Key detail: Don't mind the intraday spikes! Look at whether the closing price stabilizes above the moving average. Confirm the trend at 12 AM to avoid most trap setups.
3. Selling mantra: staircase profit-taking, clear out when breaking the line
Those who can buy are apprentices, and those who can sell are masters. My rules are just three: mechanical execution.
Staircase profit-taking: sell 1/3 at a 30% increase, sell another 1/3 at a 50% increase, and hold the remaining position to ride the trend. — Only what you pocket is money; otherwise, it's just numbers.
Trailing stop-loss: As long as the remaining position does not break the 60-day line, hold on tightly; once the closing price falls below, decisively clear out at dawn.
Anti-human nature discipline: single coin positions should not exceed 10% of total funds. For example, with a principal of 100,000, I only invest 10,000 each time, leaving 30,000 in cash to cope with crashes.
In last year's bull market, many lost 50%+ of profits due to greed and not taking profits. I locked in a 70% gain through staircase profit-taking.
4. A history of pitfalls: two iron rules + one mindset technique
Project updates are a mirror: coins that haven't updated progress in three months and have dead communities should be deleted directly. These projects are either completely dead or preparing to run away — for example, the squid coin team was silent for two weeks before the crash.
Beware of 'guaranteed profit' rhetoric: promises of 'capital preservation and high returns' are 90% scams. Reliable platforms will publicly disclose audit reports and on-chain reserves.
Mindset technique: set a price alert (60-day line ±3%), spend 5 minutes checking positions before bed every day. Reducing screen time can actually help avoid emotional trading. I've suffered losses: frequent trading cost me 20% of my principal in fees in one month.
Lastly, a couple of words
The crypto world lacks stars, but not longevity. The core of my system is just eight words: trend is king, discipline is self-defense. Don’t complicate trading; what you need is not 100 indicators, but to master one move to perfection.
Remember: living long is more important than making money quickly. If you want to communicate deeply, feel free to follow my updates — focusing only on practical insights, no bragging. Follow Xiang Ge, let me guide you to understand more first-hand information and precise points in the crypto world; learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 $ETH
