Watching my account balance drop below the stop-loss line for the third time, I locked myself in the bathroom and smoked half a pack of cigarettes — it wasn’t the bull market of 2020, but the cold winter of 2018. I used my year-end bonus saved over three years to buy the 'epic low point' altcoins, going from a floating profit of 30% to a loss of 90% in just 11 days.
Now, after 8 years of struggling in the crypto world, going from a monthly salary of 5,000 as a worker to building a trading system that earns over 10,000 a month, my biggest realization is: this market specializes in punishing those who don’t comply, but rewards those who are willing to train themselves like machines. Today, I will break down the trading framework I have verified for 6 years; every rule has been touched by my blood and tears.
I. Target Selection: It is better to miss garbage coins than to step on coins that go to zero.
I was once obsessed with finding 'overly dropped gems' until I suffered a huge loss on a platform coin in 2019. At that time, it dropped from $15 to $4, and I thought, having dropped 70%, it must rebound, only to see it drop to $1.5 after I bought the dip.
Now my selection criteria are extremely ruthless:
Only pursue strong coins: only coins in the top 20% of the past 7 days' price increase and daily trading volume exceeding $10 million will be included in the observation pool. Those with trading volume below $5 million, 'zombie coins', are likely traps where funds have already exited.
Reject all fantasies of pullbacks: as long as the target's closing price is lower than the previous day for three consecutive days, directly kick it out of the observation list. Never believe in things like 'the washout is over'; truly good coins won’t allow retail investors to easily pick up cheap chips.
The most painful lesson was in 2021 when I impulsively held onto an NFT concept coin that fell for four consecutive days, resulting in a drop from $9 to $0.8, with my capital shrinking by 90%. Now my observation pool never exceeds five coins; more means the selection is not strict enough.
II. Trend Judgment: Monthly lines determine bullish or bearish, daily lines find opportunities
The most deceptive thing in the crypto market is the intraday volatility—today it rises 30%, tomorrow it falls 20%, all traps set by manipulators for retail investors. To judge the big trend, I only look at the monthly MACD indicator:
When the monthly MACD is below the zero axis, it is regarded as garbage time: for example, throughout 2022, ETH's monthly line was always below the zero axis. In such a market, fiddling with short-term trades is like playing with fire.
Only trade after the monthly MACD golden cross: for example, in October 2023, SOL's monthly MACD formed a golden cross, and it rose over 200% in three months. This is the kind of situation with a high probability of making money.
Some readers ask why I am so persistent about the monthly line? Because the monthly line represents the true attitude of large funds. When the monthly MACD forms a golden cross, it indicates that the main funds have started to position themselves; we just need to follow along.
III. Buying Timing: 60-day line + stable increase in volume, neither can be missing.
Seeing the trend correctly but buying at the peak is the direct reason most retail investors lose money. My buying criteria are simple, like a robot:
The daily price pulls back to the 60-day moving average while showing a stable increase in volume signal (daily trading volume is 1.5 times the average of the previous three days, K-line pattern is a bullish engulfing or long lower shadow).
The 60-day moving average is the lifeline of the short-term trend. A price pullback here means that short-term profit-taking has been mostly digested. A stable increase in volume is solid evidence of capital entering the market—any rebound without volume is just a trick.
In January of this year, I practiced this strategy on ARB: after the monthly golden cross, when the daily line pulled back to the 60-day moving average and showed a stable increase in volume, I decisively entered the market and achieved a 35% increase in 18 days. The key is having rules; I wasn’t afraid during the intermediate fluctuations.
IV. Position Discipline: Gradual profit-taking is more important than trying to sell at the peak.
The greatest mental demon in trading is 'greed'; it took me three years to learn to actively 'sell early'. Now my stop-loss and take-profit rules are engraved on the screen:
Reduce position by 1/3 when profits reach 30%: first pull back the principal, let the profits run.
Reduce by 1/3 when profits reach 50%: at this point, the remaining position is already at zero cost, and the mindset is completely different.
Close out when the closing price falls below the 60-day moving average: this is an ironclad rule! In 2023, I avoided a single-day 30% crash by strictly following this rule.
Many people struggle with 'what if I sell too early'? My experience is: earning less is a hundred times more comfortable than losing money. The crypto market is not lacking in opportunities; what is lacking is the capital to survive until the next opportunity.
In conclusion: Trading is a practice; stable profits rely on 'anti-human nature'.
This method sounds technically simple; the hard part is being able to reduce positions according to plan when your coin surges 40% in a day; when assets shrink by 20%, being able to cut losses without hesitation.
I still sometimes lose sleep over executing discipline, but that is the price of growth. If you can persist in using this framework for trading for half a year, congratulations—you have already outperformed 90% of retail investors.
The market always has opportunities, but opportunities are only reserved for those who are prepared. Follow Xiang Ge to learn more first-hand information and precise points in the crypto world; being educated is your greatest wealth!#ETH走势分析 #加密市场观察 $ETH
