Ethereum fell to $2840 today, approaching the death line of $2930 for the monthly closing price. If this position is lost, ETH could plummet to $2000 or even $1100. Technical indicators are collapsing across the board, with the 4-hour RSI dropping below 30, entering deep oversold territory. The daily MACD is widening into negative territory, and the ADX has risen to 34, indicating that the downtrend is strengthening. Worse yet, the OBV has plummeted to -8400000, setting a new low for the year. The speed of capital outflow is alarming.

However, the contradictory aspect is that ETH ETF saw an inflow of $250 million over the week, and whales increased their holdings by 800,000 ETH worth $112 million in December. On-chain data shows institutions are frantically bottom-fishing, yet the price is crashing. This divergence suggests two possibilities: either the whales are trapped while bottom-fishing, or retail investors are panic selling too aggressively, causing institutions to struggle to hold the market.

From the position data, ETH futures OI is $35.9 billion, down 2.25% in 24 hours. The funding rate on Binance is -0.0028%, indicating that shorts are paying longs. This is usually a bottom signal, but the problem is if the monthly closing price drops below $2930, the technical picture will completely collapse, and no amount of good news will save it.

These next few days are crucial. Holding $2930 could lead to a rebound target of $3600, while losing it directly points to $2000. Entering the market now is like gambling with your life—high risk, high reward. However, it's best for ordinary people to wait for the monthly closing before making decisions. Don't be fooled by the actions of the whales; they can afford to lose, but you cannot.