Written by: Deng Tong, Golden Finance
As 2025 comes to a close, Golden Finance launches the "Looking Back at 2025" series of articles to bid farewell to the old and welcome the new. We review the progress of the crypto industry over the year and hope that the industry will emerge from the winter and shine brightly in the new year.
In 2025, the crypto market once shined brilliantly, reaching an all-time high, then returning to calm, ushering in a period of consolidation. This article reviews the performance of the crypto market this year.
BTC Price Trend Chart for the Year 2025
ETH Price Trend Chart for the Year 2025
1-2 Months: Loose Signals + Trump's Return to the White House Helps BTC Surge to $100,000
On January 1, 2025, BTC prices reported $93,507.88, after which BTC prices gradually increased until early February, fluctuating mostly above $100,000. BTC welcomed a gratifying market at the start of the year, with the entire industry experiencing a festive atmosphere, and investors were generally optimistic about the crypto market's direction for the entire year.
The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged in both January and February meetings but signaled a 'cautious wait-and-see, easing is expected', prompting the market to prepare for liquidity dividends in advance. From the end of January to early February, both meetings stabilized the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.5%. From a policy signal perspective, the January meeting statement removed the previous wording about 'inflation falling back to the 2% target and making progress' and added concerns about 're-inflation risks'. Fed Chair Powell clearly stated that rate cuts would only be considered when 'inflation shows real progress or the labor market shows weakness', but emphasized that 'the threshold for reversing rate hikes is extremely high', ruling out the possibility of restarting rate hikes. The February meeting minutes further revealed that officials unanimously believed that the current restrictive monetary policy leaves room to assess the economy, while expressing concerns that Trump's tariff policies might push inflation higher, but generally recognized that '2025 rate cuts remain the overarching direction', with institutions like Goldman Sachs and Barclays predicting two rate cuts of 25 basis points within the year.
Additionally, former U.S. President Trump returned to the White House on January 20, becoming the first 'crypto president' in U.S. history, resonating with the Fed's easing expectations and together serving as catalysts for the crypto market's rise.
2. March-April: Tariff Stick + Fed Easing Slowdown Leading to BTC Correction
Since Trump's return to the White House was confirmed, the market has been digesting expectations of his aggressive tariff policies.
At the end of February, Trump announced that the tariffs originally planned for Canada and Mexico would take effect next month after a delay—granting both countries additional time to resolve border security issues, with tariffs officially taking effect after March 4.
The U.S. has officially advanced expectations for tariffs on Canada and Mexico, prompting the market to reassess the global trade environment. The anticipated tariff measures taking effect on March 4 have raised concerns about global trade friction, and risk aversion has led to capital fleeing risk assets, with short-term funds favoring the dollar and cash-like assets.
On March 23, the Fed's interest rate decision meeting concluded, maintaining interest rates unchanged but raising inflation expectations, signaling that 'easing may slow down', which broke the market's previous optimistic expectations for rapid interest rate cuts. Under multiple bearish pressures, a short-term sell-off occurred in the crypto market.
3. May-October: Favorable Policies + Resumed Interest Rate Cuts Boost BTC to New Double Top Highs
America's crypto regulatory policies and interest rate cuts have indeed ushered in a 'crypto summer' for the crypto market. As a result, BTC prices soared, reaching a historical high of $123,561 on August 14, and again surged to $124,774 on October 7.
From July 14-18, the U.S. 'Crypto Week' kicked off with three major crypto regulatory bills being enacted.
On June 17, the U.S. Senate passed the (Guidance and Establishment of the U.S. National Stablecoin Innovation Act) (GENIUS Act), promoting the federal government's regulatory efforts on stablecoins and putting pressure on the House to plan the next phase of the national effort for digital asset regulation. The bill took effect after being signed by Trump on July 18. The implementation of this bill marks the first formal establishment of a regulatory framework for digital stablecoins in the U.S.
On July 17, the House passed the Anti-CBDC Surveillance Nation Act with a vote of 219 to 210.
On June 23, the House Financial Services Committee and the Agriculture Committee submitted the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act), which defines digital commodities as digital assets whose value is 'intrinsically linked' to the use of blockchain. Passed by the House on July 17.
On September 18, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to 4%-4.25%, and expectations for liquidity easing returned; at the same time, central banks in multiple countries began to include a small amount of BTC in their foreign exchange reserves for diversification, with the Dutch Central Bank disclosing holdings worth $1.5 billion in BTC assets, boosting market confidence.
On October 1, the U.S. federal government entered a 43-day 'shutdown' due to a funding shortfall, raising investor concerns about economic uncertainty and boosting demand for safe-haven assets. BTC became favored by both institutional and retail investors, soaring to a new all-time high again on October 7. Although the trend weakened afterwards, the BTC price remained mostly above $110,000 in October.
Additionally, news from June 5 regarding Circle's IPO, the Hong Kong (Stablecoin Regulation Bill) effective August 1, Trump family's WLFI transaction on September 1, and announcements of crypto reserves by various companies have intermittently served as catalysts for pushing the market higher.
While the market was rising, a crisis was lurking within. BTC began to slowly decline from its historical high of over $120,000 in October, sparking widespread discussion at the end of the year over whether a bear market had already begun.
4. November-December: Concerns About Future Economy Weaken BTC's Upside
On November 1, BTC prices reported $109,574, after which a downward trend began. On November 23, BTC recorded a low of $84,682, down 22.71% from the beginning of the month. Although it fluctuated above $90,000 for most of the time afterward, the upward trend was weak, leading to various speculations within the industry.
The U.S. government shutdown has led to the absence of key economic data, raising concerns in the market regarding the economic fundamentals and future interest rate trends, negatively impacting the performance of risk assets.
Additionally, although there had already been expectations that the Fed would continue to cut interest rates, before the cuts took effect, the Fed issued cautious signals, leading to a divergence in the market's liquidity expectations for the future. On December 10, the Fed conducted its third interest rate cut of the year, but the market interpreted it as a 'recession-style cut' to respond to economic weakness, exacerbating pessimistic expectations. Investors are reassessing macro variables such as global interest rate paths and fiscal health, tending towards more robust asset allocations amid uncertainty.
As the crypto market continues to be in a downturn, many DAT companies are struggling to survive, and the increased liquidations caused by the market's drastic changes will further push the market down.
Currently, the market is anticipating a 'Christmas rally', which may be this year's 'hope for the whole village'.
Summary
The curtain rises on 2025 amid an almost 'certain' optimistic sentiment, with Trump's rise to power creating high expectations in the industry. After experiencing tariff pressure and a slowdown in Fed easing, the market erupted again after lying dormant: favorable policies, the resumption of interest rate cuts, IPOs from crypto firms like Circle, speculation on Trump family projects, and a surge of DAT companies contributed to BTC breaking through $120,000 twice. However, influenced by macroeconomic expectations, BTC struggled to escape a volatile bottoming trend by the end of the year.
From the annual performance of the crypto market, the correlation between BTC and traditional financial markets has significantly increased, and the improvement of the regulatory framework along with the Fed's policy pace may continue to be key variables affecting BTC price trends in 2026.
