$BTC
Core Judgment: The recent interest rate hike in Japan (December 19, likely +25bp to 0.75%) is fully priced in by the market, with OIS implied probabilities reaching 94%-98%. The central bank has communicated in advance, and there are no conditions for a 'black swan' surprise.
Why there is little panic: Expectations have been digested, institutions have conducted stress tests and adjusted positions in advance, and the congestion of carry trades has significantly decreased compared to last year.
- The rate hike is moderate, the real interest rate remains negative, and the interest rate differential with the US dollar still exists, so carry funds will not rush back in an unordered manner.
- The Federal Reserve is turning towards easing, partially hedging against the spillover effects of Japan tightening.
- Bitcoin impact: It is more likely to be short-term emotional disturbance, causing fluctuations rather than a deep drop; unless there is an unexpected 50bp rate hike + continued hawkish tightening guidance, it could trigger panic selling.
- Operation Tips: Keep a close eye on the support level of $85,000-$86,000; if maintained, the focus will be on fluctuations; if it breaks down, reduce positions according to previous target levels, without the need for premature panic exits.
