#巨鲸动向 $BTC
1. Core Observation Signals (Focus on Decision Day)
1. Interest Rate Hike Magnitude and Guidance: Benchmark expectation +25bp to 0.75%; exceeding expectations +50bp or clearly stating 'continuous rate hikes'; dovish stance maintains interest rates/guidance 'highly data-dependent, gradual'.
2. Key BTC Price Levels: Support at $85,000-$86,000 (based on daily closing price); resistance at $89,000-$92,000.
3. Funds and Sentiment: ETF fund flow, long-short ratio in futures, whether USD/JPY breaks 150 (if it breaks, there will be increased pressure to close positions).
2. Scenario-Based Operational Plans (Spot + Light Leverage General)
1. Baseline Scenario (+25bp + Mild Guidance)
- Performance: BTC fluctuates between $85,000-$89,000, slightly dipping before rebounding.
- Operations:
- Positions: Hold spot, set stop loss at $85,000 for leverage ≤ 3x, reduce 1/3 at $89,000-$90,000.
- Funds: Keep 30% cash, can add small positions near $85,500 on a pullback.
2. Hawkish Scenario (+25bp + Hawkish Guidance or +50bp)
- Performance: BTC breaks $85,000, accelerating down to $81,000-$82,400.
- Operations:
- Stop Loss: Reduce 1/2 of spot positions if it breaks $85,000, close all leveraged positions.
- Wait and See: Do not catch the bottom, wait for stabilization at $81,000-$82,400 to reassess, extreme downside target at psychological level of $80,000.
3. Dovish Scenario (Maintain Interest Rates or +25bp + Extremely Mild Guidance)
- Performance: BTC quickly rebounds, hitting $89,000-$92,000.
- Operations:
- Take Profit: Reduce 1/2 at $89,000-$90,000, clear leveraged positions near $92,000.
- Chase Positions: If it stabilizes above $90,000, can add small positions up to $92,000, set stop loss at $88,500.
3. Risk Control Rules (Must Execute)
- Leverage ≤ 3x, full positions strictly prohibited; do not open high-leverage contracts before the decision.
- Stop loss based on daily closing price to avoid being swept by short-term spikes.
- Large fluctuations within 1 hour after the decision, try to adjust positions after 15:30 (after the governor's press conference).
