Selling pressure on XRP continues; as the downtrend deepens, the price has fallen well below the $2.00 level. This pullback weakens short-term momentum despite investors' occasional optimism.
Although it seems that confidence in the market is increasing, this table has not yet reflected in network activity. Therefore, XRP has a blocked path for a meaningful price recovery.
XRP Holders Are Doing Their Part
HODL Waves data shows that the determination of those holding XRP long-term is increasing. Since the beginning of the month, the share of wallets that have been hodling XRP for one to two years has increased by 3% in the supply. This group currently holds approximately 11% of the total circulating XRP.
This change indicates that medium-term holders are converting into long-term holders. Such behavior typically signifies confidence during periods of price weakness. These investors seem willing to endure the volatile market without paying attention to short-term fluctuations and are ready to hodl in hopes of a future recovery.
However, this situation also indicates that medium-term holders are currently at a loss. This means they cannot sell their XRP tokens and are forced to hold on to them.
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Still, macro indicators show that challenges are ongoing. The network value to transaction rate (NVT ratio) is hovering at high levels. An increasing NVT ratio means that asset valuation exceeds on-chain usage.
This indicator has recently reached a three-month high and signals overheating in the market. XRP's trading activity is not increasing at the expected pace. Price recoveries remain weak without network usage and sustained demand; that is, upward attempts lack on-chain validation.
At the time of writing, XRP's price is around $1.86 and continues to stay below the $2.00 threshold lost last week. The reason for this decline was the failure to break a persistent monthly downtrend at the beginning of the month. Currently, momentum remains quite fragile.
The token is trying to stay above the previously tested support level of $1.85. If selling pressure decreases, XRP may experience price stagnation below $1.94. However, if investor sentiment worsens further, the price could drop to $1.79, and short-term losses could deepen.
For a recovery to occur, an increase in network activity and ensuring overall market stability is essential. A close above $1.94 would be the first step to reclaiming the $2.00 level. Turning the $2.02 region into support could potentially drive XRP's price to $2.20 and invalidate the downtrend.
