On December 19, 2025, the international spot silver (London silver spot) opened at $64.82/ounce. After initially dipping to a low of $64.25 during the day, it rebounded with a slight increase of 0.47%. COMEX silver futures reported $65.15/ounce, with an intraday fluctuation range of $64.10-$65.68, marking the largest single-day drawdown of the year before a technical recovery. Although short-term weakness is influenced by the pullback linked to gold and short-term capital outflows, the core supports such as the expanding global silver supply-demand gap and the Federal Reserve's easing cycle remain unchanged. The medium to long-term upward logic remains solid. Detailed analysis is as follows:
1. Core Support: Two Major Logics Consolidate Upward Trend
1. Supply-demand gap pattern further exacerbated: The global silver supply-demand gap for 2025 has expanded to 3,200 tons, exceeding previous expectations and setting a historical record. COMEX silver inventory has dropped to a 15-year low of 13,800 tons, and spot market premiums have risen to $3.2 per ounce. Strikes in southern Peru's mines have lasted over two weeks, reducing daily silver output by about 12 tons, and the Mexican Senate has passed a bill to raise silver export tariffs, with supply-side disturbances continuing to ferment; on the demand side, silver usage in the photovoltaic industry has increased by 22% year-on-year, and demand for silver in new energy vehicles has surged by 35%, with industrial attributes becoming increasingly strong.
2. Policy and funding resonance support: After the Federal Reserve's rate cut in December, the US dollar index remains weak, the gold-silver ratio has recovered to 67.2, and silver valuation still has room for improvement. Global central bank silver purchases have doubled year-on-year, with the People's Bank of China accumulating a total of 3,600 tons of silver over the past 7 months, silver ETF holdings have increased for seven consecutive months, and new holdings exceeding 12,000 tons are expected by 2025, with long-term capital allocation continuing to increase. On the institutional level, Société Générale maintains its prediction of a silver price of $100 per ounce in 2026, and Goldman Sachs has raised its silver target price to $85, with bullish consensus gradually strengthening.
2. Short-term risks: Three factors causing volatility
1. Gold-linked pullback pressure: Spot gold has dipped to a low of $4,310 during the day, and silver has followed the precious metals sector's weakness. The 15-minute chart shows that silver is short-term oversold, but the correlation limits the rebound strength, and some funds have reduced their silver holdings due to gold's pullback.
2. Short-term profit-taking concentrated exit: Silver has increased by over 115% this year, reaching a historical high. Short-term funds concentrated on profit-taking above $66, with a capital outflow of $280 million during the day, triggering a rapid price drop.
3. Delivery and liquidity disturbances: December COMEX silver futures enter a concentrated delivery period, with near-month contract positions dropping by 30%. The liquidity in the silver market is weaker than that of gold, and significant daily volatility can easily occur during the delivery period, increasing short-term market uncertainty.
3. Day trading strategy recommendations
• Key levels: Upper core resistance at $65.5-$65.8, lower key support at $64.2-$64.0, with mid-term support referenced at $63.5.
• Aggressive operation: Lightly go long in the range of $64.2-$64.5, stop loss below $63.8, target $65.3; if there is resistance in the rebound to $65.6-$65.8, consider lightly shorting, stop loss at $66.2, target $65.0.
• Conservative operation: Position control within 20%. If the silver price stabilizes above $65.0, consider adding long positions, targeting $65.8-$66.0; if it falls below $64.0, promptly reduce positions to avoid further downside risk to $63.5.
Tip: The above analysis is personal analysis by A Ming, the market changes rapidly, and everything is subject to the real market!
