The need for the U.S. to refinance 8 trillion USD in the context of high interest rates may force the Fed to inject liquidity, creating positive macro catalysts for Bitcoin and risk assets heading into 2026.
The year 2025 is proving to be more difficult than 2024 with crypto, as macro volatility increases due to the expanding U.S. public debt, a weakening USD, and inflation concerns. These factors make investors cautious in the short term, but they could create conditions for a new upward cycle if liquidity returns.
MAIN CONTENT
U.S. public debt has risen sharply, with the debt/GDP ratio reaching 124.3% and the DXY down 9.16% since the beginning of the year, making macro risks dominate crypto.
The U.S. is expected to rollover $8 trillion in debt; high interest rates make refinancing expensive and increase the likelihood that the Fed will need to inject liquidity.
In a scenario of improved liquidity, Bitcoin could benefit according to macro trends and have a chance to break out in Q2/2026.
Macroeconomic volatility is becoming a major risk for risky assets
Increasing public debt, a weakening USD, and inflationary pressures are making the market risk-averse, causing crypto in 2025 to be less positive than in 2024.
The year 2025 is shaping up to be "bearish" compared to 2024 as macro factors overshadow speculative cash flows. Part of the backdrop comes from Trump-era tariffs and government spending, causing debt to increase rapidly. In FY2025, the U.S. government increased by an additional $2.17 trillion, bringing total U.S. debt to a record $38 trillion.
This move also pushes the U.S. debt/GDP ratio to 124.3%, the highest level in 4 years, implying that the debt burden is increasing rapidly compared to the size of the economy. With high debt, markets are generally more sensitive to interest rate expectations and growth rates, making volatility in risky assets easier to amplify.
The USD is also under pressure. The DXY index has fallen 9.16% since the beginning of the year (from an opening level of 108), marking the worst year-over-year performance since the 9.87% drop in 2017. With the U.S. being a large importer, a weak USD could increase imported inflationary pressures, making investors cautious about short-term "risk-on" moves.
$8 trillion in debt rollover could be a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin
When the U.S. has to rollover $8 trillion in debt in a high-interest-rate environment, increased refinancing costs may compel the Fed to support liquidity, which is usually beneficial for Bitcoin.
The U.S. is preparing to rollover $8 trillion in debt from the pandemic phase next year. The difference from 2020–2021 is that interest rates are currently higher, making refinancing expensive and adding pressure on the U.S. Treasury to issue/manage debt maturities.
In a scenario of increasing tensions, the market could expect the Fed to intervene in a way that loosens financial conditions through liquidity support measures. This was also mentioned by Trump in a recent press conference, stating that the "next Fed chair" might lean towards keeping interest rates lower, according to this Reuters article: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-next-fed-chair-will-believe-lower-interest-rates-by-lot-2025-12-18/.
Overall, the story of the $8 trillion debt rollover is being viewed as a "bullish" catalyst. With debt at record levels, a weakening DXY, signs of rising inflation, and cautious foreign investors, the Fed could be forced to support liquidity to reduce systemic stress.
To track how macro expectations influence the trading behavior of the crypto market, investors often combine observations of price, volume, liquidity, and derivative data; among which the tools on BingX can help quickly visualize market structure and risk sentiment during heightened volatility.
Liquidity could shape Bitcoin's breakout opportunities in Q2/2026
If the Fed injects liquidity to alleviate pressure from debt rollover and interest costs, Bitcoin could benefit and form a stronger upward trend by Q2/2026.
The key issue is liquidity conditions. When high capital costs increase refinancing stress, any signals of loosening (lower interest rates, liquidity support) tend to have a positive impact on liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin. The original content also emphasizes that Bitcoin is closely following macro trends, so a reversal in financial conditions could create a "leverage" for a revaluation phase.
In that picture, 2026 could become more positive in macro terms, especially if inflation and growth pressures force monetary policy to become softer. According to the outlined scenario, Bitcoin could have a significant breakout opportunity in Q2/2026, when the liquidity push is strong enough to drive cash flows back to the risky asset group.
Conclusion
$8 trillion in debt rollover, high interest rates, and inflationary pressures are a combination that could lead the Fed to lean towards supporting liquidity. If that happens, Bitcoin, which is sensitive to financial conditions, could benefit and enter a more favorable phase in 2026, with the prominent expectation milestone being Q2/2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does rising U.S. public debt affect crypto?
Public debt increases make the market more sensitive to interest rates, inflation, and fiscal health, thereby affecting risk appetite. When investors are "risk-off," crypto tends to experience significant volatility and is easier to weaken in the short term.
Is a falling DXY always positive for Bitcoin?
Not necessarily. A weak USD can increase inflationary pressures in the U.S., causing the market to worry that the Fed will maintain a tighter policy for a longer period. However, in the long term, if a weak USD is accompanied by loosened liquidity, Bitcoin could benefit.
"What does $8 trillion in debt rollover mean?"
Debt rollover is the issuance of new debt to pay off old debt as it matures. When current interest rates are higher than in previous borrowing periods, refinancing costs increase and can add pressure on budgets, bond markets, and financial conditions.
Why could the Fed's liquidity injection support Bitcoin?
Increased liquidity often leads to looser financial conditions, with cash flows more willing to accept risk and the valuation of scarce/speculative assets potentially pushed up. Bitcoin is often viewed as the most sensitive group to the liquidity cycle.
"How is the Q2/2026 milestone understood in the article?"
This is the expected timeframe in the scenario: the pressure of debt rollover and interest costs compel policies to shift towards liquidity support, thereby creating conditions for Bitcoin to break out. This is not a definite commitment but depends on actual macro developments.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/dao-no-8-nghin-ty-usd-bitcoin-but-pha-2026/
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