Tokyo time 11 o'clock, the countdown in the trading group reaches zero.
"Landed! 0.75%!" In the moment when the news flooded the screen, the group suddenly fell silent.
Three seconds later, three sounds exploded simultaneously:
"Bad news has all been released, buy the dip!" (Script A)
"Run, liquidity is about to dry up!" (Script B)
"False empty reversal, charge directly!" (Script C)
I stared at the fluctuating K-line on the screen, silently did the fourth thing: exchanged 30% of my position for @usddio.
Someone asked me: "Aren't you betting on the direction?"
I replied: "When all three scripts are betting on 'rise or fall', I choose to bet 'no matter rise or fall, I won't die'."
That 20 trillion yen interest arbitrage is like the sword of Damocles hanging over your head:
Scenario A (60% probability): Mild interest rate hike, market stabilizes after hitting bottom
Scenario B (30% probability): Exceeding expectations interest rate hike, violent liquidity withdrawal
Scenario C (10% probability): Interest rate hike landing + easing expectations, inducing a major reversal
But everyone has overlooked a problem:
No matter which scenario is played out, time is needed for verification.
And during the verification period, your position is bearing unknown risks.
This is why I choose USDD as an 'observation post':
It does not participate in scenario games: it does not bet on which of A, B, or C is correct
It only does one thing: before the scenario is revealed, it preserves your choice
It is a safety cushion: whether the market chooses to plunge violently or surge violently, you have a buffer
USDD's 'stability brings trust', its value is highlighted in multi-scenario games:
What you trust is not the prediction: but the value stability under mathematical assurance
What is stable is not the returns: but the ability to weather the storm of uncertainty
My response strategy is very simple:
40% defensive position: USDD, responding to liquidity withdrawal (Scenario B)
30% core position: BTC, ETH spot, betting on mild landing (Scenario A)
20% flexible position: cash, waiting for an inducing reversal (Scenario C)
10% entertainment position: MEME coins, small bets for fun
If you are also hesitating in front of three scenarios, please remember:
When the direction is unclear, the best strategy is not to guess the right direction, but to ensure that you can start over if you guess wrong.
True survival wisdom is not about becoming a prophet, but about being the one who can survive regardless of whether the prophecy comes true.
#USDD brings trust through stability
Follow @usddio, at the crossroads of multiple scenarios, find that always-open safe passage.
You can bet on scenarios, but your position should believe that 'stability' is the only certainty.
