Author: Viee Xiao Wei I Biteye Content Team
In the final months of 2025, the atmosphere of the bear market begins to spread.
Bitcoin has fallen from a high of $120,000, with ETF inflows once interrupted, and the trends of various cryptocurrencies have diverged, with the once-popular Meme coins now neglected. Compared to the end of 2021, this time there hasn't been an abrupt regulatory crackdown, and aside from the 1011 major crash, there doesn't seem to be a serious liquidity crisis, yet it still feels like something is off.
If the crypto world in 2025 is a recalibration of true and false value, will crypto be better in 2026?
This article attempts to find answers, and perhaps we need to accept a fact: the crypto industry may be entering an era that no longer relies on unilateral rises or the 'casino narrative' for driving.
1. Macroeconomic winds are warming, and Bitcoin still stands at the forefront.
Over the past year, both the price performance and market positioning of Bitcoin have undergone significant changes.
After surging to a historical high of $120,000, the market started to pull back, with increased volatility and gradually cooling market sentiment. Unlike previous market movements driven by retail investors, the main force behind this round of increase is institutional funds behind ETFs. According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., the average holding cost for US ETFs was noted last month to be $79,000, and many consider this as one of the support ranges for the price. Therefore, Bitcoin's current trend increasingly resembles a high-volatility institutional asset, having an anti-inflation positioning similar to gold, while also being influenced by macro sentiment and risk preferences like technology stocks, exhibiting β attributes.
From a more macro perspective, 2025 is a year of warming sentiment toward global risk assets. AI is the main thread, the US stock market continually reaches new highs, and the Federal Reserve announced three interest rate cuts in December, with the market re-entering a phase of warming liquidity expectations. The FOMC's economic forecast at the end of the year shows that the GDP growth expectation for the US in 2026 has been raised from 1.8% to 2.2%–2.5%. There is a general expectation that next year will continue to be loose, which may be favorable for assets like Bitcoin.
However, the market is not without risks. If the economy suddenly weakens in 2026 or inflation unexpectedly rebounds, risk assets may still face significant adjustments.
2. Regulatory turning point: Policy directions in the US and Hong Kong.
Another important change in 2025 is the formal framework of regulation.
In the US, two key bills have been enacted. The first is the Stablecoin Bill (GENIUS Act), which clarifies the definition of stablecoins, reserve requirements, and issuance qualification thresholds, providing a compliance path for mainstream stablecoin issuers. This bill was signed into law by the president in July 2025, effective 18 months after signing or 120 days after the regulatory agencies issue final rules. The second is the Crypto Asset Market Structure Bill (CLARITY Act), which systematically delineates the boundaries between 'security tokens' (regulated by the SEC) and 'commodity tokens' (regulated by the CFTC), proposing tiered regulation. This bill will be submitted to the Senate for review in January, after which it may also require the president's signature, with the effective date pending. Meanwhile, the SEC is also accelerating the approval of more crypto ETFs to open channels for institutional products.
In Hong Kong, regulatory steps are also accelerating. In 2025, the Monetary Authority will introduce a regulatory regime for stablecoin issuers, explicitly requiring that all Hong Kong-based stablecoin issuers must be licensed. This means that in the future, issuing stablecoins like USD or CNY in Hong Kong will need to meet certain capital and compliance requirements. Additionally, HashKey has been listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the first compliant platform with crypto trading as its core business to IPO in Hong Kong, marking a milestone.
Overall, the regulatory trends in both the US and Hong Kong are to suppress illegal speculation while opening legal business channels, promoting the industry toward institutionalization and compliance.
3. The three main lines of stablecoins, prediction markets, and on-chain US stocks.
The most stable growth curve in the crypto industry over the past few years has actually been stablecoins.
By 2025, the global issuance of stablecoins has exceeded $300 billion, with USDT and USDC accounting for over 80% of the total. Stablecoins are becoming part of the global payment network; whether USDT or USDC, these stablecoins are already permeating daily merchants and cross-border settlements.
In 2026, stablecoins are likely to be closer to the real world than ever, as traditional giants like Visa, Stripe, and PayPal are already using stablecoins for settlements. For instance, Stripe has already supported merchants to subscribe using stablecoins, providing real services that have been implemented.
Image source: a16z
Furthermore, with clearer regulations, government bond-type stablecoins (backed by high-quality assets) and regional stablecoins are expected to emerge, such as the digital currency bridge projects promoted by Japan and the EU.
Another noteworthy area is prediction markets.
Originally, most people thought prediction market products were too niche or non-compliant. But now, it has started to slowly transform into a combination of 'on-chain betting + pricing tool' under themes like the US election, sports events, and economic data.
For example, Kalshi has obtained a formal futures license from the CFTC in the US, allowing it to legally launch prediction trading related to macroeconomic data, with its valuation already climbing to $11 billion. Meanwhile, Polymarket has become a venue for many users to place bets and gauge public sentiment based on topics like the US election and entertainment events.
In 2026, prediction markets may step out of the purely speculative circle, where users not only bet on wins and losses but also vote with their money, expressing their judgment on the probability of a certain outcome occurring. This collective wisdom pricing method may be referenced by media, research institutions, and even trading strategies. Additionally, AI will also open new possibilities for prediction markets, allowing them to analyze data automatically, place orders by themselves, and even generate new markets. This will enable prediction markets to react faster and smarter, gradually becoming tools for assessing risks and trends, rather than just places to bet on wins and losses.
The last point not to be overlooked is the development of on-chain US stocks.
In simple terms, the crypto industry is now not only trading crypto assets but also beginning to bring real-world assets on-chain. For example, Securitize plans to launch the first fully compliant on-chain stock trading platform in 2026, where tokens purchased on the chain correspond to real company stocks, providing voting rights and dividends.
4. Emerging narratives: new directions that may take off in 2026.
Meanwhile, a number of seemingly marginal directions can also be observed, with the following content referenced from a16z's latest report on the 17 exciting directions in the crypto industry for 2026.
https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/article/big-ideas-things-excited-about-crypto-2026/
Image source: a16z
1. The identity issue of AI agents.
As AI agents start to participate in trading, browsing, placing orders, and even interacting with smart contracts, a key question emerges: how can these non-human entities prove 'who they are'?
The 'Know Your Agent' (KYA) concept proposed by a16z is precisely to solve this problem. On-chain, any agent must have clear permissions and affiliations to initiate a transaction, requiring a cryptographic signature to trade. In 2026, this could become a prerequisite for the large-scale deployment of on-chain AI.
2. x402 type protocols and micropayments.
a16z predicts that as AI agents extensively trade data, call computing power, and read interfaces, we will enter an era of 'automated settlement + programmed payments'.
No longer needing manual payments, AI agents can recognize needs between themselves and automatically implement payments, which is precisely the real problem that protocols like x402 are solving. In 2026, their presence will become increasingly prominent.
3. Privacy chains will receive more attention.
a16z points out a key trend: compared to the convergence of performance competition, privacy will become the core moat of future public chains. In the past, people worried that privacy chains were unfavorable for regulation and lacked transparency. But now the problem has reversed; business data is too sensitive, and without privacy protection, compliant institutions dare not go on-chain. Because of this, chains that inherently come with privacy protection are starting to become attractive. Once users start using these chains, data will not easily leak, and the cost of migration will also be higher, naturally forming new user stickiness, which is essentially a network effect.
4. Staked Media.
In the era of AI generating large amounts of content, judging whether a statement is reliable cannot just depend on who said it, but also on whether there is a cost to what they are saying. Therefore, a16z proposes a new media model where content creators do not just speak, but also 'stake' their positions through locking, prediction markets, and NFT certificates.
For example, if you express a bullish view on ETH, you also lock your own held ETH as collateral; if you make an election prediction, you also place a bet on-chain. These public interest bindings will make content no longer just talk. If this gameplay can work, it may become the new norm for on-chain media in the future.
Of course, the report from a16z presents far more than just these few directions. This article focuses on four trends that we believe are more representative, while other directions are also worth noting, such as: the upgrade of stablecoin inflows and outflows, RWA crypto-native integration, the upgrade of banking ledger systems driven by stablecoins, diversification of wealth management, the rise of AI research assistants, real-time content revenue-sharing mechanisms for AI agents, decentralized quantum-resistant communication, 'privacy as a service' becoming infrastructure, shifts in DeFi security paradigms, intelligent prediction markets, verifiable cloud computing, emphasis on product-market fit (PMF), and crypto legislation releasing more potential for blockchain.
Interested readers can refer to the original report by a16z for further in-depth understanding.
5. The crypto industry is moving out of internal circulation.
The early growth of the crypto industry was mostly built on a self-indulgent system, where token issuance, rebates, and airdrops attempted to attract more insiders to stay, but this closed-loop is gradually being broken by reality.
From Polymarket to USDT, and then to the cross-border applications of USDC, we see an increasing number of non-Web3 users employing blockchain tools. Street vendors in Lagos may not understand wallet structures, but they know that using USDT is much faster than remitting through banks, and in high-inflation countries, depositors flock to USDC merely for risk aversion rather than speculation. One of the most intuitive changes is seen in payment scenarios in developing countries, such as the exchange Coins.ph in the Philippines partnering with Circle to open low-cost USDC remittance channels.
The trend behind this indicates that crypto technology is being embedded in real scenarios such as cross-border payments and remittance channels. The true future of crypto may lie in how to use technology to solve real problems, allowing more ordinary people to unconsciously use blockchain.
6. The crypto industry from the KOL perspective.
The most recent discussion about whether spending years in the crypto industry is worth it is essentially a collective review of the industry.
Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter @ nic_carter continues the reflection on 'whether eight years have been wasted in crypto', admitting that only Bitcoin, stablecoins, DEX, and prediction markets have truly achieved significant PMF (product-market fit) to date. He chooses to maintain a pragmatic idealism, accepting that bubbles and fervor are part of the path, not the entirety.
Dragonfly partner Haseeb @ hosseeb puts it more bluntly, pointing out that the problem is not the existence of casinos, but that if one only focuses on the glamorous aspects of the casino, they will miss the real transformation of the industry. He believes that cryptocurrency is a better vehicle for finance, which will forever change the nature of money. He hopes the industry remains patient: 'The industrial revolution also took 50 years to change productivity; we have only been at it for 15 years.'
The summary from XHunt & Biteye founder @ DeFiTeddy2020 is also extremely realistic. In his view, the crypto industry can quickly expose the essence of finance, facing project zeroing, price decoupling from fundamentals, and even insider trading, manipulation, and harvesting. It is not a breeding ground for idealism, but rather a market that continually educates participants with real money, testing their mental resilience.
Regarding the future development direction of the industry, KOL crypto female bodhisattva @ xincctnnq provides a long-term perspective. What crypto truly attempts to solve are long-term issues such as monetary systems, contract execution, digital property rights, capital market efficiency, and financial inclusiveness. Even if the results are distant and the process rough, it is worth continuous attempts.
Additionally, trader & analyst @ CryptoPainter provided a more market structure-oriented explanation, stating that the crypto market repeats its usual operating mechanism: 'value investment' - 'belief investment' - 'emotional speculation' - 'complete disappointment', and then starts anew. This cycle has appeared in 2018 and 2022, and is destined to recur. Gamblers and casinos are not anomalies, but part of consuming bubbles and completing market self-regulation.
Figment Capital member DougieDeLuca @ DougieDeLuca's stance is like a phase summary. He bluntly stated that 'Crypto is dead' does not mean prices have gone to zero or that the blockchain has stopped operating, but rather that 'Crypto as a closed industry form is disappearing'. True success should integrate crypto technology into the daily lives of ordinary people.
From a more institutional perspective, KOL & researcher Blue Fox @ lanhubiji mentioned that when old users start to withdraw, new entrants with traditional financial backgrounds are coming in. In their view, crypto is a long-term trend that has already entered a path of standardization, interoperability, and scalability. Three years from now, a brand new on-chain financial era, the on-chain Wall Street era will gradually be revealed.
LD Capital founder Yi Lihua @ Jackyi_ld's judgment is closer to the current cyclical aspect. He pointed out that the recent lull in crypto is more of a phased resonance of liquidity and macro events. Current negative pressures are gradually being digested, and with dual favorable conditions of interest rate cuts and crypto policies, he remains optimistic about the subsequent market.
At a more macro level of regulation and industry structure, the judgment of Hashkey Group Chairman Xiao Feng is particularly systematic. He proposed three major trends for the future:
First, the global trend of crypto regulation is shifting from 'voluntary acceptance' to 'mandatory regulation', with governments gradually eliminating offshore gray areas, steering crypto trading towards licensing. For example, in Hong Kong, starting in June 2023, all unlicensed exchanges must exit the market.
Second, crypto is no longer just BTC, ETH, and other native assets; more traditional financial assets are migrating on-chain through tokenization, forming a new type of securities market that is compliant with regulations.
Third, moving from 'off-chain' to 'on-chain', he predicts that the second half of 2026 may be a critical node for the emergence of the 'on-chain Wall Street' prototype.
7. Conclusion.
Will crypto be good in 2026?
If what you expect is 'the price of coins skyrocketing', the answer may be not necessarily.
But if the question is whether this industry is moving toward a more real and useful direction, the answer may be yes.
From crypto ETFs to stablecoin payments, from on-chain government bonds to prediction markets, from on-chain agents to decentralized AI, all of this indicates one thing:
The crypto industry may begin to land in a more realistic direction and might increasingly resemble a twin financial system that runs parallel to the real-world financial system, resonating with the stock market, macro liquidity, policy expectations, and even the AI cycle.
