#Bankless发布2026年加密十大预测 $BTC Bankless's Matt Hougan and Ryan Rasmussen in collaboration with Bitwise released the top ten crypto predictions for 2026 on 2025-12-16:
1. Bitcoin breaks the four-year halving cycle, reaching an all-time high
- Core: Liquidity and institutional demand driven after halving, no longer strictly following the four-year bull and bear cycles, breaking previous highs within the year.
- Trading reference: Support level looks at $32,000-$35,000 (ETF funds supporting), resistance level $48,000-$50,000 (previous high pressure), accumulate in batches on pullbacks, stop loss at $30,000.
2. Bitcoin's volatility is lower than Nvidia's
- Core: Institutional allocation and normalization of ETFs reduce BTC volatility, while tech stocks are more volatile due to the AI cycle and competition.
- Trading Reference: Suitable for low volatility strategies, such as covered call options, rolling to earn time value.
3. ETF net inflows exceed Bitcoin's annual inflation rate
- Core: Institutional demand surges, with annual net purchases of spot ETFs exceeding 300,000 BTC, higher than the inflation output of about 900 BTC/day.
- Trading Reference: Dollar-cost average into BTC spot or ETF, holding period of 6-12 months, bullish in the long term.
4. Crypto stocks outperform tech stocks
- Core: Crypto-related stocks like Coinbase and MicroStrategy outperform the Nasdaq 100 due to high industry growth.
- Trading Reference: Focus on COIN and MSTR, add positions when the price retraces to the 20-day moving average, set a stop loss at 10%.
5. The U.S. passes the (CATSA) act, clarifying the regulatory framework for cryptocurrency
- Core: Legislative implementation reduces compliance risks, attracting traditional finance to enter on a large scale.
- Trading Reference: Positive for compliant platforms and the ETH ecosystem, consider investing in mainstream coins like ETH and SOL.
6. Ethereum becomes the global 'bank layer', with stablecoin banks rising
- Core: ETH as a settlement layer, new banks for stablecoins merge with DeFi, becoming super financial applications.
- Trading Reference: Pay attention to USDC and USDT issuers and DeFi leaders (AAVE, UNI), and buy on dips.
7. Wall Street fully embraces on-chain tokenization
- Core: Giants like BlackRock are advancing the on-chain integration of traditional assets, with tokenization becoming a core trend by 2026.
- Trading Reference: Pay attention to asset tokenization projects like MKR and COMP.
8. Compliant ICOs return, reappearing in mature forms
- Core: After regulatory clarity, compliant ICOs restart, project quality improves, and speculation decreases.
- Trading Reference: Only participate in SEC-registered compliant projects, start with small amounts to test the waters, and diversify risks.
9. Robot tokens spark a speculative frenzy
- Core: The AI narrative continues, robot-related tokens surge in the short term, but lack substantial value support.
- Trading Reference: Quick in and out, take profits at 30-50%, stop loss at 15%, do not hold long-term.
10. Quantum security enters mainstream discussions of encryption
- Core: Quantum computing threats are being taken seriously, the industry accelerates quantum resistance upgrades, and related technologies receive investment.
- Trading Reference: Invest in quantum-resistant encryption projects, such as Quantum Resistant Ledger (QRL).
