#日本央行加息
According to the latest market information, after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's speech today (December 19), the USD/JPY exchange rate experienced a rapid short-term increase 📈
📈 Market Data
· Market Overview: After the speech, the USD/JPY rose approximately 60 points in the short term. The intraday increase once expanded to 0.5%, with the highest exchange rate reported at 156.37.
· Market Background: This wave of exchange rate increase occurred against a key backdrop: the Bank of Japan just concluded a two-day policy meeting this morning, and with a unanimous vote of 9:0, raised the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%. This interest rate hike had been fully anticipated and priced in by the market.
🔍 Market Reason Interpretation
Market analysis suggests that the depreciation of the yen after the interest rate hike primarily stems from the following points:
1. "Buy the rumor, sell the news" market reaction
The market generally believes that the 0.75% interest rate is the highest level since 1995, but this interest rate hike action had been fully anticipated and digested by the market. When the anticipated rate hike actually materialized, traders chose to take profits, leading to a short-term weakening of the yen.
2. The Bank of Japan's "dovish" stance on rate hikes
Despite the rate hike, the Bank of Japan emphasized in its policy statement that this hike is "gradual and cautious," not a shift towards a restrictive policy, and that real interest rates are still expected to remain significantly negative. This relatively "dovish" (less aggressive) stance weakened the market's expectations for the Bank of Japan to implement rapid and substantial rate hikes in the future, thereby suppressing the yen.
3. The impact of Kazuo Ueda's speech
The market originally expected Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda to provide clearer guidance on future rate hike paths during the post-meeting press conference. From the market's reaction of a rapid decline in the yen after his speech, it appears that his statements may not have provided the stronger "hawkish" signals that the market hoped for, which was interpreted as bearish for the yen.
💎 In simple terms, the direct reason for the short-term rise of the USD/JPY today is: the Bank of Japan implemented a "dovish rate hike" that met expectations, and the governor's speech did not release an unexpectedly tight signal, leading to "sell the news" trades dominating the market, putting pressure on the yen.
