By the end of 2025, XRP quotes approached a critical turning point. On higher timeframes, the asset shows weak dynamics, having lost about 16% of its value over the month. However, changes in the structure of market pressure have begun to emerge.
Technical indicators and blockchain data indicate a weakening of sellers' positions, although confirmation of a price reversal has not yet occurred.
Sellers are losing control of the market
The current situation is not simply an expectation of growth. The key question is whether the reduction in sales intensity is sufficient to overcome the dense resistance zone. This barrier remains a determining factor for the short-term outlook of the asset.
The first signs of recovery appeared on the 12-hour chart, where leading trend reversal signals often form. From November 21 to December 18, the price of XRP updated its local minimum. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a higher low. This divergence, known as a 'bullish' divergence, indicates a slowdown in the rate of decline.
Although the asset's value continued to decline, the intensity of sales noticeably fell. Sellers remain active, but they no longer have the resources to maintain the previous rate of decline.
Blockchain statistics confirm this thesis. The Net Position Change metric for long-term holders of XRP tracks whether large investors are accumulating or distributing coins. On December 11, net sales peaked at 216.9 million XRP. By December 18, this figure had decreased to 132.2 million XRP.
Thus, the daily volume of selling pressure has decreased by about 39%. The market is no longer under the complete control of bears, although this does not guarantee an immediate shift to growth.
Even with a further decline in selling activity, XRP faces a serious test of the strength of its price structure. Data on the average purchase price of assets indicate the formation of a large supply cluster in the range of $1.96–$1.97. In this zone, investors have concentrated about 1.82 billion XRP.
When the price returns to levels of mass accumulation, many market participants seek to close positions at breakeven. This turns the range $1.96–$1.97 into a zone of strong resistance.
The price chart confirms the data from on-chain analysis. Attempts for XRP to establish itself above $1.96 have repeatedly been thwarted, and local rebounds have faded precisely in this area. For the current recovery to turn into a sustainable upward trend, a daily candle needs to close above the $1.96 mark.
In the event of a negative scenario, the key support level is $1.76. A break below this mark would mean a return of initiative to sellers and open the way for a deeper correction. At the moment, the XRP market is caught between weakening bearish pressure and a massive supply barrier.
