Yesterday, the interest rate hike finally took place, and the US stock market and cryptocurrency market welcomed a rebound. In terms of yesterday, the negative news turned positive, making the rebound normal. But has the bad news really run its course? Not necessarily. As for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectation for next year, the expectation for a cut in January is currently only 24.8%. Moreover, historically, on the day Japan raised interest rates, the market generally does not drop (except for rate hike days at the end of the month). I have consistently emphasized that after Japan raises interest rates, the market typically declines around a week later or experiences a sharp drop. For example, during the last interest rate hike on 1.23, there was also a rebound on that day, but a week later, there was a significant drop, so risks should still be monitored. Some analysts are optimistic that BTC will hit 100,000 next week, but that may not be too optimistic; the upper Bollinger band on the daily chart is only around 94150. Therefore, during this period, there is a significant divergence in the market. Let's first look at the key information for next week:

12.24 (Wednesday): Japan's monetary policy meeting minutes;

12.25 (Thursday): US stock market closed, Trump may announce the next nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman;

12.26 (Friday): Japan's December CPI.

Simply from the information perspective, the short-term fluctuations from Wednesday to Friday next week may be similar to this week's, with both rebounds and sharp drops expected, making it uncomfortable for both bulls and bears.

Now looking at the candlestick chart:

BTC dropped to the lower Bollinger band of 84408 on a 4-hour chart the night before last and quickly returned to the upper band near 89350 yesterday. The area around 84400 is also the lower band of the 10-day Bollinger (after hitting zero, a stop-loss signal was generated, leading to this week's lowest point). Currently, it is facing resistance and fluctuating between the upper and middle bands at 89350. Indicators on lower time frames below 1 hour are currently above the zero axis, indicating a relative strengthening compared to the previous two days.

The main resistance points for next week (short-term bearish points) are:

89385/89515, 90185, 90750;

Resistance points after breaking 90750: 92250, 93050, 94150/94250.

In the short term, there are rebounds on the 12-hour and daily charts, with rebound highs around 88800 and near 89385.

In the next two weeks, there are two risks: the 15-day and 20-day MACD will successively return to the zero axis. When these two levels' MACD reach zero, they will still likely pull back to 80,000 and below 80,000, which are also buying points. We can discuss this further when we reach that point.