零下二度
喜欢写作，编程，旅行的币圈人。本轮17000抄底btc，sol均价43。2023.10-2024.3连续16周币本位做多sol赚取7k枚一战成名。推特：@jackli727
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Firm belief in Bitcoin’s bull market cycle!
In February 2021, I randomly found a piece of paper in a hotel on a business trip and simply drew the time nodes and multiple difference analysis of Bitcoin's historical cycle. That day, I studied the previous two bear and bull cycles of Bitcoin. It was already in a bull market at that time, so I made an inference on the possible time point of the highest point of the bull market that year. At that time, I concluded that we were in the upward range of the third bull-bear cycle of Bitcoin at this time, and the highest point would definitely occur in a certain period of time. At that time, I had already locked the time of Bitcoin's highest point in November 2021 (of course its highest point turned out to be 69,000, and I overestimated it by more than 20,000 US dollars). This is also the reason why I gradually cleared out the Bitcoin position from mid-November to early December 2021 when it was around 60,000, leaving only 10% of the position that I have held until now. Regarding the detailed inference at the beginning of 2021 when predicting the highest point of the bull market at that time, I published it that month. The following is a screenshot of the analysis that year. (Many people in last year’s big bear market didn’t realize until they looked back that November 2021 was the month when the last bull market ended?) In the afternoon, I reviewed the first three bear-bull cycles of Bitcoin from 2011 to 2021, and the first three Bitcoin declines. The correlation between half time and the end of the Fed’s balance sheet reduction. The start and end time of the next bull market cycle has basically been determined again. As the saying goes, experience is the best teacher, sometimes better than technology. Please firmly believe that Bitcoin’s fourth bull market cycle will officially start in May next year, and will still end in November-December 2025. Under special circumstances, it will be postponed to January of the following year. It is undeniable that all bull markets since the birth of Bitcoin have ended almost from the end of one year to January of the following year. When I reviewed the characteristics of the first three Bitcoin bull cycles, I also looked at the operating characteristics of the first three halving cycles of Litecoin. Combined with the characteristics of this month, I also affirmed a conclusion: Litecoin’s halving time this year is The trend is completely in line with its historical cycle operation rules (the specific characteristics were posted on the afternoon of July 31). Therefore, we don’t need to be too anxious about the current volatile market, don’t be depressed, and get through the next half of the year, and we can welcome the highlight moment again in the first half of next year! 💪Believe in the big cycle operation rules of Bitcoin, this is your true belief in it!
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The SOL has rebounded after touching the bottom at 120, and there has been volatility for three weeks. The rebound's peak is concentrated at three points: 140.5, 146.5, and the yet-to-reach 152.5. Whether 152.5 can be reached depends on whether BTC can break through 94000 to reach 97200. This will be revealed next week. If reached, heavy shorting will occur.
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After ETH hit the bottom at 2620, it has been fluctuating and rebounding for three weeks. The rebound's high points are concentrated at three levels: 3139, 3261, and 3435. Among them, the area around 3435 is the high reached after the interest rate cut the night before last, while the area around 3139 is the lowest point it retraced to last night, near 3142.
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After BTC fell to 80600, it has been fluctuating and has been rebounding for a while. The high points of the rebound are concentrated at three levels: 90850, 94000, and the yet-to-be-reached 97200. Whether it can reach 97200 will be revealed next week.
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eth: Today resistance is 3272, support is 3150 (the needle part is 3142). If it breaks below 3150 in the short term, the decline will expand. The amplitude is shrinking and organizing to the right. The potential for a rebound at the 2-day level is strengthening, with strong resistance between 3372-3440. It will only reach 3495-3555 after breaking through.
Therefore, bears defend at 3450, while bulls defend at 3140.
Therefore, bears defend at 3450, while bulls defend at 3140.
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btc hourly level moves in a crooked manner, retail investors' desire to go long is not strong, but the momentum of the 2-day line level rebound is still increasing, and the 3-day line level rebound may start to take effect next week. After the rebound takes effect, it is still expected to reach around 97400-98800. The current pressure is around the 2-day boll middle track at 93570 and the 1-day boll upper track at 94250.
If 93570-94250 breaks through, the 3-day rebound will take effect, and it will aim to explore around 97400-98800. This step is very violent, generally belonging to the peak period of short position liquidations. And after pushing up, it may violently crash next week under the stimulus of major bad news.
Therefore, the bulls defend 89000 (breaking here will lead to a rapid decline), while the bears focus on defending 94600 (breaking here will push towards 98k).
If 93570-94250 breaks through, the 3-day rebound will take effect, and it will aim to explore around 97400-98800. This step is very violent, generally belonging to the peak period of short position liquidations. And after pushing up, it may violently crash next week under the stimulus of major bad news.
Therefore, the bulls defend 89000 (breaking here will lead to a rapid decline), while the bears focus on defending 94600 (breaking here will push towards 98k).
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Last night I couldn't hold on and fell asleep before 3 AM. The short position I held during the day yesterday went up; if I had just opened a short position near the take profit point of yesterday's long position, it would have been comfortable.
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The biggest variable this month is still the December 19th monetary policy meeting in Japan. A few days ago, the probability of a rate hike in December was as high as 75%, but yesterday it dropped a bit. The probability of a rate hike before March was as high as 90%.
From today's market perspective, it seems that there will be further upward movement in the coming days. Even if Japan raises interest rates, there is no need to panic; we can start positioning for long-term short positions around the 18th. For now, let's take advantage of the lows from the past two days.
From today's market perspective, it seems that there will be further upward movement in the coming days. Even if Japan raises interest rates, there is no need to panic; we can start positioning for long-term short positions around the 18th. For now, let's take advantage of the lows from the past two days.
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Last night, why did Sol pull so hard, daring to short directly at 144.5? Because near 144.5 is the peak point of the upward wave from the starting point of 127. As long as you catch the 'wave peak', short-term shorts generally have a minimum profit of 8 points. Usually, I would exit early if it retraces 6-7 points, so last night I set the take profit at 138.85.
So, what is the next wave peak? Lock in near 148.5, as its starting point is the lowest point of the retracement yesterday morning at 131. Therefore, today's long position take profit target and short entry point are already very clear.
So, what is the next wave peak? Lock in near 148.5, as its starting point is the lowest point of the retracement yesterday morning at 131. Therefore, today's long position take profit target and short entry point are already very clear.
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Large funds have entered the ETH market, and last night it broke through 3250, thus the "trend" has reversed. This trend is only being observed for this week and the week before next Thursday.
The weekly MACD is already preparing to turn upwards, and the 10-day moving average has also stopped falling, with the next high point aimed at around 3600. Therefore, taking short positions around 3600 offers the best risk-reward ratio. Some are preparing to go all in short around 3400, which is not recommended, because if 3440 is directly broken, it will rush towards 3600, with 3520 and 3550 serving as weak resistance, and 3660 as strong pressure. The resistance point near 3600 is 3588, while the resistance points between 3600-3660 are 3626/3646. If the price exceeds 3588, all these positions will yield good profits for short positions.
The weekly MACD is already preparing to turn upwards, and the 10-day moving average has also stopped falling, with the next high point aimed at around 3600. Therefore, taking short positions around 3600 offers the best risk-reward ratio. Some are preparing to go all in short around 3400, which is not recommended, because if 3440 is directly broken, it will rush towards 3600, with 3520 and 3550 serving as weak resistance, and 3660 as strong pressure. The resistance point near 3600 is 3588, while the resistance points between 3600-3660 are 3626/3646. If the price exceeds 3588, all these positions will yield good profits for short positions.
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The volatility tonight might be quite large, with a high probability of sharp fluctuations. The long positions taken during the day can continue to take partial profits at last night's highs (btc 94500, eth 3396, sol 144.5), and after breaking through, aim for another resistance level above, such as btc 95750, eth 3626, sol 152. For safety, it's also advisable to wait to re-enter short positions at these levels, which is safer.
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Although the pullback was strong last night, the necessary corrections still need to happen. Except for ETH, which temporarily pulled back to 3283, BTC and SOL both reached their target points for the pullback. The target points for the pullback are also new short-term long points.
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The Bank of Japan plans to raise interest rates to 0.75% at its monetary policy meeting on December 19, 2025, which will set the policy interest rate at a new high since 1995, with market expectations exceeding 90%. This move will end a sustained nine-year period of negative interest rates, and the government has clearly stated that it will not intervene.
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Last night, ETH 3135-3150, short position on SOL 136.25, had reached the take profit range around 6 AM. This has already exited.
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From the perspective of the 20-day line level, the downward trend of SOL has resulted in five consecutive negative days, which is the first time since 2022. This is equivalent to a continuous drop of nearly 100 days since reaching the highest point of 253 (all small rebounds in between have been engulfed by large negative candles). Some say it's a death spiral, which isn't an exaggeration. This indicates that by September, the main forces had already begun to withdraw on a large scale, and the hype about the October ETF passing is just a smokescreen. However, as we are approaching the bottom, it is no longer possible to chase shorts. Only those short positions above 202 can still be held. In the long run, spot purchases below 120 can still yield considerable profits when the next bull market starts. This requires faith to support it.
The earliest purchase of SOL was in the second half of 2022, on the day FTX collapsed when SOL dropped to 8-12. I started entering the market then, and in the second half of the previous year, I held contracts from 32 all the way to 206. Although after April last year until this year it has been a volatile market, with sharp corrections, the elasticity and short-term profit-making effect during bullish trends is the strongest. I still have a long-term positive outlook on SOL.
The earliest purchase of SOL was in the second half of 2022, on the day FTX collapsed when SOL dropped to 8-12. I started entering the market then, and in the second half of the previous year, I held contracts from 32 all the way to 206. Although after April last year until this year it has been a volatile market, with sharp corrections, the elasticity and short-term profit-making effect during bullish trends is the strongest. I still have a long-term positive outlook on SOL.
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Recently, many people often ask whether SOL will drop below 120, as their long positions are generally liquidated between 114 and 102. I think it is still quite dangerous, as the highest point of the rebound during this period has not even broken 147; if the high point does not move up, then the probability of it moving down later is very large. The price will only become a solid bottom at 120 if it breaks above 157 (i.e., the pullback will not be lower than 141). If we purely look at the weekly trend level, the area around 120 is the bottom. The MACD gave a stop-loss signal last week, but its support is ineffective and misleading. This is because the pullback cycle has upgraded to the 10-15 day level. The 10, 15, and 20-day lines, along with the monthly line bottom, are all between 115-100, and currently, these four major indicators are all in a strong bearish trend.
In the past, price points between 120 and 100, such as 114 and 104, were generally realized quickly in the form of a spike, as well as the lowest point of 95.2 reached after the last interest rate hike in Japan, which was also realized by a spike. The solid energy bars are still above 120, with the portion from 120 to 95.2 pulling back with lower shadow lines.
Therefore, the range between 120-95 is the defensive range for the bulls this month. One cannot have a mindset of luck; preventing a major spike downward is key. One cannot be certain that a certain position will not be broken; if it does break or spike down, and the position goes to zero, it will be too late for regrets.
In the past, price points between 120 and 100, such as 114 and 104, were generally realized quickly in the form of a spike, as well as the lowest point of 95.2 reached after the last interest rate hike in Japan, which was also realized by a spike. The solid energy bars are still above 120, with the portion from 120 to 95.2 pulling back with lower shadow lines.
Therefore, the range between 120-95 is the defensive range for the bulls this month. One cannot have a mindset of luck; preventing a major spike downward is key. One cannot be certain that a certain position will not be broken; if it does break or spike down, and the position goes to zero, it will be too late for regrets.
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The fluctuations this week, next week, and the last week are quite large. The cost of trial and error in the short term has increased, requiring a reduction in leverage and positions. Short-term trades with no significant cost advantage should not hesitate to incur losses; only by taking losses can one reach a more suitable position. For example, as long as BTC does not break 94600 this week, the short position around 93850-94050 would be at the highest point. However, if 94600 is broken, it could rise to the oscillation range of 96300-97850. Therefore, 94600 must have a stop loss set.
If the short position captures the highest point this week, then in the last two weeks of this month, after Japan's interest rate hike is implemented, the profit from this short position will be very substantial, even more surprising than the drop from 11.11-11.21 to 80600.
If the short position captures the highest point this week, then in the last two weeks of this month, after Japan's interest rate hike is implemented, the profit from this short position will be very substantial, even more surprising than the drop from 11.11-11.21 to 80600.
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1:00 The recent wave led by the main force was quite good, pushing up to a resistance level. Before the interest rate meeting, the main force turned to bullish BTC options. After breaking through 91300, we can only wait for 93850-94500 to short. If we break through 94600 before and after the meeting, we can short at 96300-97850. Around 97200 is the 0.618 retracement level for the decline from 11.11 to 11.21; if we can reach here this week, it should be the extreme high point of the rebound, making it difficult to break and hold above. The highest point of the rebound this week is likely to be the starting and ending point for next week, so capturing the high point to short will determine the profit margin for the short positions in the following two weeks.
SOL just happened to reach around the resistance point of 136.25. The significance of shorting here is limited, and the space is constrained; after breaking through, we will look at 139-144. 141 and 143 are still points for shorting above, with a larger profit margin. Shorting with a stop loss at 147.
SOL just happened to reach around the resistance point of 136.25. The significance of shorting here is limited, and the space is constrained; after breaking through, we will look at 139-144. 141 and 143 are still points for shorting above, with a larger profit margin. Shorting with a stop loss at 147.
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ETH just reached 3150, and the MACD signaled a stop in the rise after 30 minutes. We will stay here for the time being. Last night at 22:00, it dipped to 2903 and quickly rose to 3150, which corresponds to an increase of 247 points, basically the maximum threshold for a single-day increase. It is unlikely to stabilize immediately, hence a short opportunity arises here. A pullback to 3062-3028 is needed, and after stabilizing, we can continue to test the pressure at 3222-3236, and then 3280, 3336, 3372 are all pressure points. All can be shorted.
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Shorting below 136 is not recommended, as the space below 120 has not yet opened. The risk-reward ratio for shorting below 136 is not significant, and it belongs to a low-level shorting strategy, where profits can quickly be given back or reversed. Wait for a rebound back to 141.85-144.5 before continuing to short.
This week, it is also not recommended to go long above 133, as the pressure is already near 136. Two important pieces of information are about to arrive, and it's not easy to hold onto long positions; the low long positions at 128-126 can only be traded on a short-term basis.
This week, it is also not recommended to go long above 133, as the pressure is already near 136. Two important pieces of information are about to arrive, and it's not easy to hold onto long positions; the low long positions at 128-126 can only be traded on a short-term basis.
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