Family! Who understands! I almost spilled my coffee on the keyboard when I just saw JPMorgan's stablecoin forecast report! Before, the hype in the circle was outrageous, saying that by 2028, the stablecoin scale could reach 2-4 trillion, but they directly splashed a bucket of cold water—at most 500-600 billion! This gap is even more mind-blowing than the cryptocurrency waterfall market! Today, let’s not mess around; as a veteran in crypto for ten years, I'll lay this out clearly, all genuine insights from the heart!
First, let's talk about the current situation. Don't be fooled by the superficial prosperity! This year, stablecoins seem impressive, skyrocketing by hundreds of billions, with the total directly surpassing 3.08 trillion. But let me tell you, this growth is purely 'self-indulgence within the circle'—to put it bluntly, it's just the crypto internal cycle trying to keep up appearances! What are people using it for? It's not for daily consumption payments; it's all about internal trading turnover, leveraging contracts, and making arbitrage in the decentralized finance ecosystem. The real payment scenarios? Almost zero! It's like a closed-door carnival that the outside world doesn't buy into at all. This is also the core reason why I never believed in the 'trillion-dollar expectation'; the bubble will burst at the slightest poke.
Let's talk about future uncertainties. You must remember these three points; they are crucial for the strategic direction over the next few years!
First, cross-border transfers may be a breakthrough, but don't be too optimistic. Theoretically, stablecoins have advantages in cross-currency and cross-regional transactions, but compliance issues are a hurdle that cannot be avoided, and regulators in various countries are keeping a close watch. Scaling up is not that easy.
Secondly, traditional banks are here to 'cut in'! Many banks are currently focusing on tokenized deposits, which are essentially 'traditional stablecoins.' Backed by bank credit, they are quite attractive to ordinary users, and this will directly siphon off market share from stablecoins.
Thirdly, central bank digital currencies are already on the way! This is the real 'game changer.' Once the officially backed 'regular army' enters the arena, the survival space for private stablecoins will inevitably be squeezed. Whether it will coexist or be crushed is still uncertain, but challenges are definitely unavoidable.
At this point, I have a clear personal opinion: stop being overly optimistic about the crazy expectations within the circle. A pragmatic view of the value of stablecoins is the way to go. Their core function is still to serve the crypto ecosystem. To emerge from this circle and become a mainstream payment tool, there is still a long way to go. Will the future be a flourishing of various options, or will it be dominated by giants? I lean more towards 'the strong get stronger.' Those stablecoins backed by compliance and mature technology will dominate, while small workshops will eventually be eliminated.
Finally, let's have some interaction! Do you think JPMorgan's predictions are reliable? Will stablecoins be able to break through the bottleneck of payment scenarios in the future? Follow me@链上标哥 , so you don't get lost! Next week, I will specifically break down the hidden details of this JPMorgan report, as well as the current stablecoin ecosystem opportunities worth paying attention to. Missing out could be a big loss! See you in the comments section~
