Family, who understands! As soon as the U.S. November CPI data was released yesterday, the entire financial circle went into a frenzy, and the crypto circle got excited even earlier—after all, this data basically rolled out a shiny red carpet for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut!
Let me ask everyone a heart-wrenching question: has the past half a year been filled with "Federal Reserve interest rate hikes," "high inflation," and "cryptocurrency stagnation" making you feel overwhelmed? Every time you see the FOMC meeting preview, do your palms sweat? Now! The turning point might really be coming, and this signal is so clear that it hardly requires guessing!
Let's highlight some key points for the newcomers (veterans can also appreciate it again): In November, the US CPI unexpectedly cooled to 2.7% year-on-year. It’s not just overall inflation that has dropped; core CPI has also retreated—these two data points are the 'core reference indicators' for the Federal Reserve in formulating monetary policy, essentially the biggest stumbling block on the path to rate cuts, which has been directly removed!
Some may say: it's just a piece of data, why so excited? Bro, you are too naive! You have to know that previously, the Federal Reserve kept insisting on 'inflation not hitting the 2% target' and was hesitant to hint at rate cuts. Now that CPI has dropped from its high to 2.7%, just a step away from the 2% target, what does this indicate? It shows that the inflation pressure in the US has significantly eased, and the Federal Reserve's reason for maintaining high interest rates can no longer stand!
My personal opinion is very clear: the recent cooling of CPI is definitely not a coincidence, but a strong signal that inflation is entering a downward channel. The expectation of interest rate cuts in early 2026 has changed from mere 'speculation' to a 'high-probability event.' Moreover, the market always reacts in advance—look, before the data was released, the US stock market had already sneaked up a bit, and mainstream assets in the crypto circle shot up directly, with trading volume significantly increasing as well. Isn't this just funding positioning in advance?
Let's talk about some practical insights regarding the impact of this rate cut expectation on the crypto market. First of all, crypto assets are essentially high-risk, high-elasticity assets that are extremely sensitive to liquidity. A rate cut by the Federal Reserve means more money in the market, and this 'hot money' will definitely seek higher returns. As the 'wealth-building high ground' of the past few years, the crypto market will inevitably attract a portion of this capital, which is a solid positive for the market.
Additionally, previously, many institutions held a wait-and-see attitude toward crypto assets due to high interest rates. Once the rate cuts are implemented, the cost of capital for institutions will decrease, and their willingness to enter the market will greatly increase. You have to understand that the scale of institutional funds is much larger than that of retail investors. Their entry will not only drive up the market but also enhance the overall activity and stability of the market.
However, I must pour a bucket of cold water on everyone (don't blame me, I'm doing this for your own good): although the expectation of rate cuts is very strong, we cannot blindly chase high prices. After all, the Federal Reserve has not officially announced it yet, and there may be some data fluctuations in between. Moreover, the crypto market itself is very volatile, and chasing highs can easily lead to losses. My advice is to stay rational, accumulate in batches, and focus on mainstream assets with practical application scenarios. Don't be misled by the short-term surges of some worthless coins.
To be honest, over the past year or so, our friends in the crypto circle have really had a tough time, having to withstand the pressure of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes while dealing with various black swans in the market. Now, we finally see a glimmer of hope; this wave of easing signals can be said to be the clearest one since the beginning of this year.
Finally, let me share a little secret: the upcoming FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve must be closely watched, as it is a key occasion to verify the expectation of rate cuts. I will also continue to track relevant data and meeting dynamics, providing timely interpretations of the underlying impacts.
Do you think this wave of rate cut expectations can drive the crypto market to surge? Has the asset in your hand started to stir? Feel free to leave comments for discussion, and don't forget to follow me. In the future, I will share the most hardcore analyses and the most timely signals with everyone, so we can all profit steadily in this wave of market conditions! Follow me @链上标哥 to avoid getting lost!
