After this week's sharp decline, Bitcoin has temporarily stabilized around the 85k mark, which has become the focus of market attention. For investors, the most concerning question is: Can the 85k mark hold? Will the market see a short-term rebound, or will it continue to dip to 80k? To answer this question, we need to analyze from two dimensions: 'supporting factors' and 'pressure factors'.
From the perspective of supporting factors, there are currently two major potential positives in the market: First, the Bank of Japan may show a 'dovish turn'. If the Bank of Japan signals a easing stance on interest rates, the selling pressure from yen arbitrage positions will significantly ease, and Bitcoin may see a rebound; Second, the upcoming non-farm payroll and CPI data from the United States. If the data is favorable—steady growth in non-farm employment and a decrease in the year-on-year increase of CPI—then the Federal Reserve's expectations for easing will warm up again, and the restoration of liquidity expectations will support the rebound of Bitcoin prices.
From the perspective of pressure factors, the bearish signals remain evident: firstly, the long-term trend of the yen interest rate hike has not changed; even if there is a short-term easing, the probability of further interest rate hikes remains high, and the pressure of long-term liquidity tightening is still present; secondly, the outflow trend of funds on the cryptocurrency chain has not yet been curbed, and miner sell-offs and ETF fund outflows may still continue; finally, the uncertainty of the global macroeconomy still exists, and factors such as geopolitical conflicts and economic recession risks may trigger market risk aversion, further suppressing Bitcoin prices.@男神说币 #比特币流动性 $BTC
