Don’t trust luck, only trust the rules.
Six years ago, I was curled up in the corner of a rental room, the light from the phone screen reflecting on my face, with 40,000 yuan borrowed in my account. Today, I can calmly tell you: the crypto market never disappoints those who are serious, but it never forgives those who rely on luck.
Most of the people who entered the field with me at the beginning have disappeared into the crowd. It's not that they aren't smart enough, but they always want to take shortcuts. As for me, I survived in this turbulent sea relying on six 'down-to-earth' iron rules, and I did quite well.
1. Listen to the voice of capital, not the noise of news.
Newbies love to chase hot topics; they rush forward at the slightest hint of 'good news'. I have also suffered huge losses because of this. Once, a project released good news, and the coin price instantly surged by 20%. I was afraid of missing the boat and went all in. What happened? The news was bait released by the main force, just waiting for fish like me to bite.
Now I watch the market, first looking at the volume, then at the candlestick chart. Volume is the sound of real money, rising volume is like a large army marching, the footsteps are orderly and powerful; shrinking volume rising is like a few people tiptoeing, feeling very insecure.
True breakthroughs must have volume support; any rise without volume is a scam. Remember: news can be faked, but the footsteps of capital flow cannot deceive people.
2. Refuse the temptation to 'catch the bottom', flash crashes are not opportunities but traps
How many times have I watched the coin price flash crash by 30%, 40%, with that little voice in my heart saying, 'it’s dropped so much, it should rebound, right?' The result was that I tried to catch the bottom halfway up the mountain, watching the coin price drop another 50%.
I now understand completely: flash crashes are not about picking up bargains, but the main force dumping garbage. Have you seen the market stall closing down and selling off? Those are not fresh vegetables, they look cheap but will upset your stomach when eaten.
Truly valuable assets will have capital supporting them during downturns, and won’t drop like a stone. Those that fall without resistance likely had their insiders run away long ago. Remember: the market never lacks opportunities; what’s missing is capital. Protecting your bullets is more important than anything else.
3. High positions being 'quiet' is scarier than being 'lively'
Most people think the market top must be bustling, but that's not the case. The real top is often sudden silence.
Last year I personally experienced a case: a popular coin consolidated at a high position for two weeks, the price didn’t drop much, but the trading volume decreased day by day. Someone in the group started shouting 'it’s stable', but the more I looked, the more anxious I became — it was like a noisy battlefield suddenly going silent, definitely not a good sign.
As expected, on the third day, it directly gapped down by 60%, not even giving a chance to escape.
I have now developed the habit: high position consolidation + shrinking volume = danger signal. This indicates that large funds have quietly exited the market, and only retail investors are left comforting each other. Once I notice such signs, I will immediately reduce my positions, never getting attached to the battle.
4. The bottom is 'boiled' out, not 'guessed' out
Newbies love to guess the bottom, and I am no exception. I once drew a bunch of support lines on the candlestick chart, confidently saying 'this is definitely the bottom', only to be slapped in the face by the market time and again.
Later I understood: the bottom is boiled out over time, not drawn out by technical analysis.
The true bottom will have a process: sharp drop → gradual drop → consolidation → gentle increase in volume. The first few stages are all traps; only when a gentle rise in volume is confirmed is it a relatively safe time to enter. This process may be long and torturous, but that’s how the market is — those who can endure will stand out, and those who cannot will exit.
5. Market heartbeat chart: volume does not lie
I now watch the market with volume in front of the candlestick chart. Because the candlestick shows 'what happened', and the volume shows 'why it happened'.
Rising on shrinking volume is like a patient having a final burst of energy, looking lively but actually hollow inside; falling on increasing volume is like a dam bursting, incredibly powerful, and must be avoided.
The relationship of volume seems simple, but it is the most real language of the market. I set a rule for myself: any trading decision must have a volume basis. Opportunities that do not comply with volume rules, I would rather miss than make a mistake.
6. Turn yourself into an execution machine
In the market, the biggest enemy is not the market makers, but your own emotions. Greed makes you hold on when you should sell, and fear makes you hesitate when you should hold on.
Before each trade, I now write down three points in black and white: at what price to enter, where to cut losses, where to take profits. When the time comes, I execute like a machine, without hesitation or entanglement.
Once, a coin I bought suddenly plummeted 15%, my hands were shaking, but I still stopped loss as planned. As a result, it dropped another 20% that day, and the group was in mourning, but I was glad I cut my losses early. Discipline is not a shackle, but a talisman.
Lastly, a few heartfelt words
The cryptocurrency market operates 24 hours a day, and opportunities are always there, but your capital is only one.
In these six years, I have seen too many smart people fall, not because their skills were poor, but because they always wanted to take shortcuts. And I, this 'fool', only insist on using the most basic methods: not doing what I don’t understand, not touching what violates the rules, and only earning money I recognize.
The easiest mistake for newbies is trying to seize every opportunity. Experienced traders know that real skill lies in abandoning most opportunities and only engaging in those that truly belong to them.
If you have just entered this market, remember my words: first seek to survive, then seek to develop. Invest with spare money, starting with small amounts; the focus is not on how much you can earn at once, but on how long you can survive in this market.
Six years have passed, and I am no longer that new person trembling while looking at the candlestick chart. But we still need to maintain respect, because the market always has things we do not understand. The secret to stable profits lies not in how accurately we predict, but in how little we lose when we are wrong and how well we hold on when we are right.
This road is very lonely, but very fair — every bit of your seriousness will eventually be rewarded by the market. Follow Xiang Ge to learn more first-hand information and precise points in the cryptocurrency circle, becoming your navigation in the crypto world; learning is your greatest wealth!#巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察 $ETH
