After eight years of forging swords, blood and tears have turned to steel
In the winter of 2017, I held the 2000 yuan I had just saved from my salary as I made my first payment in front of the old computer in my rented room. The K-line on the screen was jumping like an electrocardiogram, and my hand gripping the mouse was sweating—at that time, I had no idea that this 2000 yuan would take me into a battlefield intertwined with heaven and hell, nor could I have imagined that eight years later, it could grow to 36 million.
Now some people call me 'Big Boss', but they have never seen me after I blew my account in 2018: staring at my account going to zero at three in the morning, cigarette butts piled up like a small mountain, messages from family lying on my phone, and I didn't even have the courage to reply. No one knew that when Bitcoin retraced 40% in 2020, I stared at the 8 million evaporating from my account and didn't sleep for three whole days.
I have been liquidated 3 times and lost my savings twice; during the hardest times, I even had to calculate how to buy instant noodles. But the pits I have stepped in and the tuition I have paid have ultimately crystallized into six iron rules. Each one is stained with my blood and tears; understanding one can save you from losing 100,000, and grasping three can help you avoid 90% of the traps in the crypto space.
01. Rapid rise and slow decline is a wash; don’t easily give up your chips.
I vividly remember the Ethereum market in 2019: it rose 20% for three consecutive days, then suddenly pulled back 5% on the fourth day, and everyone in the group was shouting 'it's topped, run!' I was holding 100 ETH at the time, feeling tortured inside. But recalling the lesson of being washed out before, I stubbornly held on.
Later, I realized that this slow decline after a rapid rise is often not a top—the main forces in the market are most afraid of you remaining calm. They deliberately create slight pullbacks to scare off retail investors, thereby collecting chips. The real danger signal is 'sudden volume spike': for example, a 15% surge within half an hour with trading volume suddenly expanding several times, followed by a large bearish candle; at this point, you must decisively exit.
Price fluctuations are just surface appearances; trading volume is the truth. A coin that rises every day and has beautiful candlesticks, but with continuously shrinking trading volume, is a 'false rise' and has an unstable foundation.
02. Rapid drops and slow rises are traps; rebounds are often bait.
During the collapse of LUNA in 2022, many people were trapped. I personally saw someone rush in to 'buy the dip' after a 60% drop, reasoning that 'it has dropped so much already, how much lower can it go?' As everyone knows, this coin eventually went nearly to zero.
The cruelest trick in the crypto space is the 'false rebound' after a flash crash. A price suddenly drops by 20%, then slowly rises by 5%; do not be deceived by the illusion that 'it can't drop any further'—this is often a trap that leads people to buy.
I lost 100,000 this way in 2018, and since then, I have basically ignored small rebounds after sharp declines. The real bottom takes time to form; it won't be a V-shaped reversal. Coins that are supported by market makers remain stable during a major market crash; they may be the seed candidates for the next market cycle.
03. High volume at a high price is not necessarily dangerous; no volume is the real crisis.
Many people panic when they see high volume at a high price, but this is not necessarily accurate. In 2021, when Bitcoin was close to its historical high, trading volume continued to expand, and many people shouted 'run fast', but I didn't sell everything—because volume indicates that there are still funds competing, and large funds have not completely withdrawn.
The real danger signal is 'high volume at a high price.' For example, if a coin hits a new high but the trading volume shrinks to below half of its normal level, the candlestick looks like it's hanging in the air—this usually means that funds have left the market, and only retail investors are trading.
Now, when I judge a top, I first look at whether the volume supports the price. A rise in price without volume is a bait, and no volume in a sideways market is a danger signal. Learning to identify real risks is more important than chasing profits.
04. Caution is needed for volume increases at the bottom; sustained volume is the real signal.
The most common mistake for beginners is to rush in when they see a sudden increase in volume at the bottom. In 2019, I experienced a coin that had a single-day volume increase of 10% at the bottom, and I immediately followed in, only to be stuck for half a year—later I understood that this was 'wash trading' and not the real main force accumulating positions.
The true signal for establishing positions is 'continuous gentle volume increase.' When a coin consolidates at the bottom for a while and then starts to see a gradual increase in volume over several days, with prices slowly pushing up, that’s the sign of funds entering the market.
When I build my positions now, I definitely wait for the bottom pattern to be confirmed and for the volume to continue to expand before entering in batches. I'd rather miss the lowest point than ensure the trend is established.
05. Trading volume is the pulse of the market; candlesticks are just the surface.
I used to be obsessed with various candlestick patterns and technical indicators, only to find that these things can be 'drawn' by market makers. It wasn’t until I experienced several losses that I realized: candlesticks are for people to see, but trading volume is the truth that cannot be hidden.
When the price fluctuates slightly but the trading volume continues to expand, it indicates that funds are quietly positioning. If the price rises sharply but the trading volume shrinks, it indicates insufficient follow-up buying, and the rise is hard to sustain.
Now when I look at the market, I first look at trading volume, then at price. Trading volume is a leading indicator; price is just the result. Grasping this logic will greatly enhance your win rate.
06. The highest realm is self-discipline; controlling your hands is key to survival.
Over the years, I have seen too many technical analysis experts end up suffering heavy losses—the problem lies in emotional management and self-discipline.
True trading experts understand the art of waiting with an empty position. When the market is unclear, holding cash is the safest choice. The crypto space is not a casino; there’s no need to bet all the time.
I set strict rules for myself: I must take profits at 30% gains, and cut losses at 10% losses, regardless of how enthusiastic or panicked the market sentiment is; I strictly enforce them. As long as the green mountains remain, I need not worry about firewood.
In eight years, nearly three thousand days and nights, from a beginner who couldn't even understand candlesticks to now being able to calmly respond to market fluctuations, my deepest realization is that the key to long-term profitability in the crypto space is not IQ but discipline and mindset.
The market is never short of opportunities; what is lacking is the ability to identify opportunities in traps and to remain calm during panic. Build your own trading system and stick to it to achieve stable and long-term results.
These iron rules seem simple, but very few people actually achieve them. I hope you can learn to survive in the crypto space before pursuing profits—living longer in this market is more important than making quick money.
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