The forecast ties to one future. Scenarios allow for several.
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Strategic thinking is scenarios, not forecasts
Forecasts create a sense of understanding of the future. They form a clear picture of 'how it will be.' But the market rarely develops along a single predetermined path.
Key idea
Strategic thinking relies not on forecasts, but on scenarios, because the future is multivariate, not linear.
Key idea
Strategic thinking relies not on forecasts, but on scenarios, because the future is multivariate, not linear.
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