Brothers, I am Lao Zhang, a veteran who has been rolling in the industry for ten years. Recently, the market has been quite thrilling. Last Friday opened low and rose high, today opened high and oscillated, and at the end of the day, there was some selling pressure narrowing, making people anxious. Many have asked me: 'Will next Monday directly attack 3900 points?' I’ll speak frankly, don’t believe those mystical predictions. Let’s clarify things today, I put the key data here, you can judge for yourself!
First, the conclusion: Next Monday is likely to open high, but it will be difficult to stabilize at 3900 points. The main force is playing the game of 'oscillation and accumulation'.
Why make this judgment? Three core logic points:
The technical aspect has broken through short-term pressure, but moving averages converging = a sign of a trend change.
The current index has broken through the 5-day and 10-day lines, with only the 30-day and 60-day lines above pressing down. But all moving averages are starting to converge, what does this indicate? The market has entered a directional choice window. To surge up to 3900 requires volume support, while a downward crash means a retest to wash out positions. Heavy selling pressure at the end is evidence — the main force is adjusting positions, not fleeing.
After the bad news lands, incremental capital is testing.
Last Friday's stock index futures settlement and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, these two major thunderbolts have already exploded. What was the result? The market didn't crash; instead, the trading volume exceeded 1.8 trillion. This indicates that the panic selling was absorbed, and as long as there are no unexpected black swan events (like the Federal Reserve adopting a hawkish stance), incremental capital will gradually enter the market.
Policy bottom support + year-end market expectations, the main force is clearly grabbing stocks.
The Central Economic Work Conference has just set the tone of 'domestic demand as the mainstay'; the LPR may be lowered next week, which is a direct benefit for the real estate and consumption sectors. At the same time, technology growth stocks (like AI and commercial aerospace) are being highlighted by institutions for the spring market. The main force is currently pulling financials to stabilize the index while bottom-fishing in technology for elasticity, which is not mindless speculation.
Where are the opportunities? Focus on two directions.
Policy-driven short-term themes:
Commercial aerospace/AI hardware: The meeting over the weekend has fermented, combined with the expectation of order fulfillment, speculative funds will definitely ride the wave.
Consumer recovery: ice and snow tourism, duty-free retail data exceed expectations, year-end peak season + policy subsidies, easily explosive surprises.
The hidden lines of institutional year-end layouts:
High dividend blue chips: banks, utilities, strong defensiveness, suitable for those seeking stability.
Oversold technology: semiconductors, AI applications, fund position replenishment, large elasticity.
Risk reminder.
If the Bank of Japan continues its hawkish stance, the global liquidity tightening expectations will suppress A-shares.
If the LPR doesn't drop on Monday, the real estate chain may turn around and crash, dragging down the index.
The last truth: the market is not lacking in opportunities, but lacks patience. If next Monday opens too high, do not chase; wait for a retest of the moving averages before gradually entering. The main force is not a philanthropist; accumulating positions amid volatility is the truth!
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