Recently, the on-chain data of XRP has been quite interesting. To join the top 10% of holders, the threshold has quietly risen to 2314 XRP (which is roughly over 4700 dollars at the current price). This number reflects not only price changes but also a structural adjustment in chip distribution—accumulation by whales and exit by retail investors are happening simultaneously. As an old hand, I think this signal is worth digging into.
1. On-chain data doesn't lie: the 'greed' moments of whales.
Take a look at several recent key indicators, and you'll understand why the threshold is rising:
Whale addresses have broken historical records: the number of wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP has surged to 317,500, setting a new high. These 'big holders' are not merely spectators; they are accumulating real assets.
Exchanges are running low: the XRP balance on exchanges has plummeted from 2.63 billion at the beginning of November to 270 million, setting a record low since 2018. What does this indicate? Coins are being moved to cold wallets for long-term lockup, easing selling pressure.
Network activity is skyrocketing: the 'velocity indicator' on the XRP chain has surged to a high not seen since 2025, indicating that the tokens are circulating quickly in economic activities, not just hoarded but actively used.
My interpretation: large whales hoarding coins and the depletion of exchange liquidity, these two factors combined can easily trigger an imbalance between supply and demand. Don't forget, the total supply of XRP is fixed at 100 billion, but the circulating supply is only about 48 billion, with the remainder being slowly released by Ripple. Now, the large holders are tightening the circulating supply, and with a slight increase in buying, the price could surge.
Two, why is the threshold of 2314 XRP key?
The increase in the threshold essentially means that chips are concentrating among a few people. According to 2025 data, the top 10% of wallets control about 68% of the circulating supply, which is considered high concentration among mainstream coins. But from another perspective, entering the market now is equivalent to 'free-riding'—the cost line for whales is nearby, and they are more afraid of a drop than retail investors.
More importantly, 2314 XRP is approximately 4700 USD. For individual investors, this position is not heavy, but it can already separate you from the 'retail' camp and enter the group that has a say in prices. Historical data shows that when XRP holds the support level of 2.15 USD, it is likely to trigger an accelerated rise, and the current price is oscillating near this critical area.
Three, Ripple's custody control: it's both a risk and an opportunity.
Many people complain that Ripple holds too much XRP (about 42% of the total), but I think it should be viewed dialectically:
The release of 1 billion tokens per month sounds frightening, but in fact, Ripple will only use a small portion of it, and the rest will be locked back up to avoid crashing the market.
Ripple needs the XRP price to stabilize and rise to attract institutions to use its ODL (On-Demand Liquidity) service. They are in a community of interest with retail investors.
Of course, centralization is a hidden danger, but now that Ripple and the SEC's legal entanglement has become clearer, it has actually given institutions confidence. Recently, rumors have circulated that Ripple is planning to create a digital asset treasury, which is a clear statement.
Four, my personal opinion: it feels like the calm before the storm.
The technical aspect is building momentum: the daily chart is forming a potential V-shaped reversal. If it can break through the 200-day moving average at 2.59 USD, the next target will be above 3 USD.
The fundamentals show strong demand: XRP is not a worthless coin; it is genuinely used in RippleNet for cross-border payments, acting as a bridge for fiat currency exchange. In the future, if integrated with central bank digital currencies (CBDC), the potential will be even greater.
The emotional landscape is warming up: the more coins flow out of exchanges, the less remaining liquidity in the market, any sudden demand could easily blow up the shorts.
If you ask me what to do: I would take 2314 XRP as a baseline, building my position in batches, and not all at once. Especially when the price tests the 2.15 USD support level, it could be a good time to accumulate.
Conclusion: Don't be fooled by short-term noise.
The controversy around XRP has never ceased, but on-chain data doesn't lie—whales are hoarding, exchanges are bottoming out, and network activity is at an all-time high... these signals combined make the threshold of 2314 XRP feel more like a 'boarding pass' rather than a railing that can be easily crossed. Of course, the cryptocurrency market changes faster than turning pages, controlling positions and setting stop losses is a common saying, but it's also a lifeline.
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