A few days passed, and it seemed like there was a feeling of extreme good fortune after extreme bad luck. My mother has passed the dangerous period but is still in the ICU. The cryptocurrency price continued to rise after a second test on July 8, reaching just over 50,000. During that time, I was at the hospital every day, but I couldn't enter the ICU. I could only sit on the benches outside, feeling very uneasy. I kept looking at the market every day, reviewing various charts or reading books on indicators and trading.
As I recall, the highest point of Bitcoin that could be seen at that time was around 68,500, Ethereum was near 3,465, BNB was around 700, and SOL was near 193. This was not more than 1% different from the position that Liu Da saw. Although everyone belonged to different factions, the results were surprisingly close.
During that time, a fan asked me to create a QQ group for easier communication. At that time, I only had about 2,500 fans, and because I had been hurt by that old group, I really didn't want to build a group again. But he asked me three times and then said, 'How about I build it, and you be the manager?' I thought about it and said okay; I would just say less. Later, we built the QQ group, and I went in to manage it. There weren't many people in the group, and there was hardly any news all day.
I also hardly make any trading suggestions anymore; I only occasionally help with advice when someone asks what to do with their stuck positions.
During this time, Binance started doing live broadcasts. At first, it was possible to sign up directly. I signed up with a try-it-out attitude and unexpectedly got selected, pairing me with Teacher Ai. At that time, Teacher Ai was already a big V with over 5,000 fans. This was the first time I could talk directly with a big V, and I was so excited I couldn't remember what the topic of that event was. I remember it was related to market conditions, and I even did some homework. Unfortunately, as the event approached, I got sick, had a fever, a splitting headache, and my voice was hoarse. Additionally, because I was always in the hospital, I didn't check TG messages much and missed the confirmation period. At that time, they wanted me to provide a clear avatar or something like that. I can't remember clearly. Because I missed the confirmation, that episode was done with Teacher Ai and someone else. I regretted this matter quite a bit, and now it still feels quite regrettable. But since I missed it, I can only wait for the next opportunity.
However, because of this incident, I added Teacher Ai's TG, and I have hardly ever sent any messages. I don't know what I can say to the big V. I have always been a Siri-style socializer; it's not that I'm aloof, but most of the time I don't know what I can talk about with others, so it turns into a situation where others don't talk to me, and I won't take the initiative to talk to others either. (I'm really not aloof... My friends all know...)
After that, I just went on living a plain life like this. Most of my time was spent in the hospital. Although my mother was still in the ICU, she was no longer in critical condition. I was already very content. At that time, I thought if she got better, I could take her home and stay by her side every day, and I was very content with that.
Around mid-July, the price indeed reached the level I estimated at that time, except Ethereum was 25 points short. Everything else had reached. I then let the friends who bottom-fished with me at that time take their profits. I didn't take profits and kept waiting for Ethereum. Even the altcoins that had already reached their positions weren't sold.
I remember in May, Ethereum had only passed 194b, while S1 was passed in July.
Before the temporary passing, I posted an article to remind everyone because previously, when BTC passed S1, Grayscale almost immediately started dumping and crashing. So, it’s important to note that there is a high probability that Ethereum S1 will replicate the previous path. At that time, Bitcoin crashed about 40% from its highest point, so Ethereum also has a similar probability of crashing that much.
Then, I didn't leave, I really didn't leave. I didn't exit any positions.
At the highest point, my account returned to 59,850. I even told my wife that we were about to break even. My wife said, 'Then you should sell quickly,' and told me twice to sell quickly. I felt that hair grows long and knowledge is short, and holding on could lead to a 'big result'. Looking back now, this is the amazing sixth sense of women... So, friends, you should listen more to your wives. Maybe you won't make a lot of money, but you definitely won't lose a lot...
The next day when I woke up and looked, the market was a sea of blood red, just as I had estimated at the time. It crashed due to grayscale, and I was down to just over 35,000. The SOL contract I opened halfway up the mountain made over 2,300, but I didn't exit and was directly hit with an unrealized loss of over 1,000. The worst part was that I had opened all positions, and many contracts were opened halfway up the mountain using profits, causing the Ethereum contract at 2150 to have a liquidation price floating up to 2760, already very close to the liquidation price. Reluctantly, I closed the long position on SOL to lower the liquidation price.
Then it started to rebound again, and I still didn't leave. Later, Bitcoin surged again, and the highest point I could see was 704. This was also the first time I was lured by the main force because it was too close. At that time, I told my friend that once it went above 700, we wouldn't short, but if it fell below 700, we would directly enter a short position at market price, with a stop loss at the previous high. Then my friend's long positions closed for profit, and I was still holding longs and spot, then I opened a short for Bitcoin at 699, Ethereum at 3445, and SOL at 198. This was the first time I made a short based on my own judgment and logic. However, because I had only been trading long for many years, I still couldn't psychologically accept shorting. Moreover, the previous quant trading had caused several significant losses due to shorting, leaving me with a bit of psychological shadow. So, I only had 1/10 of the short positions compared to my long positions. A few minutes later, it fell over 2,000 points, started showing a rebound that was suppressed, fell over 2,000 points, and rebounded a little over 1,000. I then supplemented an article, indicating that this might be the beginning of a reversal. Of course, I received a lot of abuse.
Then it started a downward trend. The next day it was confirmed that it had started to pull back. The depth was at least at the 4-hour level. On Friday, the daily line had already approached the critical value of the 4-hour and daily line pullback, and there were some signs of rebound. A lot of friends in the comment area wanted to bottom fish, but I still chose not to buy and reminded them that it was close to the critical value. By the evening, because Buffett reduced his holdings in Apple, it caused the Nasdaq to plummet temporarily, causing Bitcoin to crash because it fell below the threshold, confirming the entry into a daily line pullback. I posted again saying that all bottom fishing should not be done, and the pullback had not ended. At that time, a lot of friends had been stuck in too many positions and were asking in the comments what to do.
Here, there was something I really regret because according to convention, an oversold should have a rebound, and it should have been repaired over the weekend. The replies I gave to friends who were stuck were basically: 'Normally, there will be a rebound on the weekend, so on Sunday, pick a high point to lock a short position, and by Monday morning at the latest, find a position to do a lock.' This seems to be the thing I regret the most because Saturday was a whole day of fluctuating up and down, and the Sunday daily line was also like this. By Sunday night, it had already started to decline again, and it kept declining all night. Those who didn't manage to lock their positions had to pin their hopes on Monday, and everyone should remember what happened on Monday.
On Monday morning, a bunch of calls woke me up, saying there was a crash. When I got up around 8, I saw the whole market had dived. My account was entirely stopped out, including the Bitcoin I bottom-fished on July 5, and SOL also got stopped out. My account fell to a lower amount, only around 32,000. But after the experience on July 5, I was calm and directly bought 20,000 SOL at market price at 121, 10,000 Bitcoin at 503, 10,000 Ethereum at 2230, and 2,000 altcoins, opening over ten mainstream altcoins at 10x. I can't remember the opening prices, and then I took my child to the water park.
The entire day seemed to have no repair, I remember that day I was not happy at the water park. The daily line was unstable, fluctuating back and forth. Before I left in the morning, I kept getting phone calls, which caused my entry price to be higher than expected. Every few minutes, I would check the market, and my wife kept complaining that I was only looking at my phone and not watching the child. My cat (my son) kept complaining that I didn't play with him properly when I was out. But I felt so uncomfortable watching that price jumping back and forth...
When I finished playing and came back, it was evening, and there was a second dip. I brought another friend to bottom fish for SOL. I went to probe the bottom and opened a SOL spot at 110, and I opened a little bit of spot for Bitcoin around 530, and some Ethereum around 2150.
The night line rebounded better than I expected. After one night, when I looked the next day, the account had already exceeded 40,000. My mother's condition had also stabilized, so I wanted to go out for some fresh air. I couldn't go far, so I went nearby to Qianfo Mountain, where there was a temple.
I come from a medical background and was originally a staunch materialist. However, due to my mother's illness, I can't think of any treatment options anymore. I can't believe in traditional Chinese medicine at all, while other leading treatment options in the industry require a submission for 'very special conditions' to possibly receive 'medical support', which is almost impossible to apply for successfully. At that time, the ICU at Qilu Hospital said that surviving the critical period was already a miracle, and if I wanted a full recovery, I would need a miracle of miracles (Qilu Hospital has always wanted me to transfer to other hospitals, but when I inquired at other hospitals, they either had no beds or did not accept the transfer). Under heavy pressure, I climbed to the top of the mountain that day, looked at the temple, and couldn't stop crying inexplicably. My cat asked me why I was crying, and I said it was because of the smoke. Thinking about the hardships along the way, I donated some incense money to have the abbot 'look' at it. I told the abbot about my and my mother's situation and wanted to ask why I was so unfortunate. The abbot said a lot, but I can't remember clearly. The clearest thing I remember is that there are causes for everything. The current cause and the cause from previous lives have led to the results in this life. Doing more good deeds, cultivating good relationships, and eliminating karma debts is the way to break the cycle.
From that point on, I became a 'mentally unstable' person. Other people do things for money. I do things not for money; I only seek a 'good relationship', hoping that these can accumulate into a 'miracle of miracles'. My thinking is very simple: as long as I can help others, it's a good relationship. Holding onto this belief, I shared everything I knew and could do. If I didn't know something, I would look up information and continue to share, hoping to help others. It was also because of this 'abnormality' that led to being attacked by several fake accounts later on, but that's another story.
Suddenly one day, Teacher Ai sent me a message, inviting me to do a live broadcast. I had never done a live broadcast before and felt socially anxious, really not knowing if I could do it. But Teacher Ai said to just talk casually, not to have any psychological burden, and with a try-it-out mindset, I did my first live broadcast. Maybe because I had no friends in real life or no one to chat with, I ended up broadcasting all night, from 8 PM to 5 AM the next morning.
I really didn't feel any psychological pressure; I just thought everyone was so interesting. Live broadcasting was really enjoyable. After the broadcast ended, I slept until the evening. When I woke up, I saw Teacher Ai's message saying that we would do live broadcasts every week from now on. Afterward, I fixed my live broadcast every Saturday, and he would be the guest. Every Tuesday, he would broadcast, and I would be the guest. The content of the live broadcasts was a mix of everything, basically just me sharing some of the techniques I knew with everyone. That difficult time was made much better because of live broadcasting. Although it had a slight flavor of escaping reality, the number of people adding to the Q group started to noticeably increase because of live broadcasting. Often, after a live broadcast, dozens of new friends would join the group.
My fans gradually increased to 3,000, and I could finally apply for a rebate account. After submitting, there was no response for a long time. Later, Teacher Ai helped me find a friend of his to get it approved (applying for a rebate account back then was not as simple as it is now). After getting the rebate account, I originally thought I could give myself a rebate, but later found out that my own trades didn't count.
At that time, the group owner of the Q group was always very enthusiastic. His family was in business. I had no research on tea; he said the tea I bought had been used by others to trick me. He even sent me a few bags of jasmine tea he was selling, saying his family had plenty of it. If I wanted to drink tea, I should call him. The day after I received my rebate account approval, he told me he used a Weibo account with 10,000 fans to apply for a rebate, and it got approved. He was about to go study in Russia and wanted to do rebate work to save some money for his family. He was born in 2005, five years younger than my nephew. I suddenly remembered that when I just started dating my wife, my nephew was only over a year old. By the time he was over three (in 2003), I had already bought a car, taking my wife and nephew around. It made me realize how quickly time passes, and I felt that the current kids have this ambition, so no matter what, I had to support him. I told him that he could go ahead and do it; I wouldn't do it anymore. Just do it well; you can do it.
A few days later, I saw him posting an advertisement in the Q group, constantly talking about rebates and promising 40%. I privately chatted with him, saying that the one I had just applied for was only 30%. How could you give someone 40%? You can't deceive people; this is the bottom line, absolutely cannot deceive. He told me a bunch of things, but I can't remember the details. The general idea was that by stacking multiple activities, you could get over 40%. He was only making that little bit. Then I asked him, 'What if the activity goes away?' People will come to you, right? He said it was all clear; 40% was only temporary. I emphasized once again that you must absolutely not deceive, no matter what. If you deceive me, I will leave the group immediately; this is my bottom line. He also promised that he would absolutely not deceive, so I could rest assured. After that, he kept doing the rebates while I just watched the group messages and responded to others' questions.
The market conditions in August have been fluctuating up and down, and so has my account. It goes high for a while and low for a while. After experiencing several small time-level roller coasters back and forth, I finally felt nauseous. I began to use spot positions to lock in profits during the pullback, but the shorts I took were not for making money, just to lock in the profits of the long positions to avoid pullbacks. So, when it went down, I didn't take profits; I just kept locking with the break-even loss (which turned out to be unfeasible). Because my Binance account trades had a 0 rebate, and another one under my wife's account also had a 0 rebate, that account was not linked to this one. Although there were no losses, the back-and-forth trading still incurred a lot of transaction fees. At first, I didn't notice, but later I realized that the account's amount hadn't changed. When SOL was at 140, my account's amount was still the same when SOL reached 143, which was quite strange. Upon closer inspection, I found that the fees from the back-and-forth locking had already reached an astonishing 3,000+ USD, which was extremely frustrating.
At that time, the A-shares had already begun to show signs of turning around. My wife's little uncle, after being silent for many years, again went all in. I remember it wasn't long before he made a relatively impressive number. He then called me to look at the Lexus 570 and Land Cruiser 570 at Tianjin Port. At that time, the LC300 couldn't get licensed yet, and the LC200 was already overstocked for more than a year, and due to tariffs, the prices were still not low. By a twist of fate, he ended up buying an Alphard. Looking back now, it seems he bought it near the highest point at 123 + 20 + 5. Except for when he took a peek when ordering the car, he didn't show up again until the car was picked up and driven home. He didn't even show his face. It's still better to do finance; when people have enough money, spending over a million feels like spending over a hundred. I still have to keep working hard...
I don't really dare to be alone with my wife's little uncle because as long as we're alone, I will always be criticized and educated. Although he hasn't criticized me for my stubbornness in doing business in early years for the past few years, he still criticizes me endlessly for playing with coins, saying that there are stocks and futures in the country, so why did I choose this thing. I can't argue; we're not on the same level, and any argument is pale. Actually, I want to say, 'Little uncle, your ant warehouse position is several times my entire capital. If you let me go into stocks, I have only a few insignificant amounts. If I follow you, you can't lead me...'
Let's stop here for today. A lot happened last year, and I need to try to remember everything clearly, so I don't miss anything...
