When the market is in a panic sell-off over the possibility of MSTR being removed from the MSCI, the true opportunists have quietly built their positions — because this "identity crisis" has exposed the lag of the traditional index system, rather than the failure of the MSTR model.
Yes, 77% of MSTR's balance sheet is in Bitcoin. But let's not forget: it has opened the door for institutional investors to hold BTC in compliance with corporate identity. In the current situation where spot Bitcoin ETFs are still hampered by regulatory restrictions, MSTR is the most efficient "Bitcoin leverage channel". Its software business has an annual revenue of $500 million, continuing operations, paying taxes, and hiring — is this not a solid business? MSCI marginalizes it on the grounds of "non-operating", which is essentially institutional discrimination against new digital asset companies.
More crucially, the bad news has long been priced in. The stock price has been halved and then halved again from its peak, with the market value approaching the net value of the Bitcoin it holds, and the premium almost zero. Even if it is really removed on January 15, the $2.8 billion passive sell-off will hardly create a deep pit — JPMorgan even admits that "downward space is limited". Conversely, if MSCI ultimately compromises (especially in the context of MSTR already being included in the NASDAQ 100), it will be an epic reversal of expectations!
Michael Saylor's ambition has never been to run an ordinary software company, but to build the "financial infrastructure of the Bitcoin era". Short-term pain is inevitable, but history will ultimately prove: when mainstream indices are still measuring digital civilization with the yardstick of the industrial age, MSTR has long stood at the starting line of the next bull market. The current panic is merely a discount ticket for smart money to enter.
