链上洞察

On December 31, Musk stated, 'Energy is the real currency,' which is not just a casual remark but a declaration about the future financial order. While global central banks are still frantically printing money, he has already turned his attention to the truly non-falsifiable value—electricity.

Bitcoin is criticized for being a 'waste of energy,' but precisely this 'waste' has made it the gold of the digital age. Behind every BTC is real kilowatt-hours, the relentless cooling fans of mining farms working day and night, and the actual pressure of the grid's load. This mechanism of minting currency with energy is, in fact, more honest, scarcer, and more resistant to inflation than a banknote backed by government credit.

More importantly, on the eve of AI and automation sweeping the world, human labor will no longer be the core measure of value. In the future, whoever controls energy will control productivity; and whoever can convert energy into tradable, verifiable, globally circulating digital assets will hold the key to the new world. Bitcoin is, indeed, the most mature vehicle on this path.

Being bullish on Bitcoin is not about betting on it rising to $1 million, but about believing that when the world returns to the essence of value, the trust forged by energy will ultimately surpass the illusions created by the money printing machine. This bull market has just begun.

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2025年底，全球资本上演了一出荒诞剧：一边是黄金冲破4500美元、白银暴涨150%，各国央行疯狂囤金；另一边，比特币从12.6万美元高点暴跌30%，被市场无情抛弃。表面看，这是“避险逻辑”的胜利——但真相更残酷：不是比特币跌了，而是它从未真正被当作“价值锚”。

黄金的狂飙，源于人们对美元信用体系的集体不信任。而比特币的回调，恰恰暴露了它的尴尬处境：既不够“稳”到成为避险资产，又太“野”难被主流金融完全接纳。机构在恐慌时抛售它，散户在杠杆爆仓后逃离它——可别忘了，比特币从来就不是为“安稳”设计的。

它的真正价值，不在K线图里，而在那些无法使用银行账户的人手中，在对抗恶性通胀的阿根廷家庭里，在战乱中靠一串私钥守护财富的普通人眼里。比特币是数字主权，一种无需许可、不可冻结、全球通行的价值选择。

这次下跌，洗掉了投机泡沫，却可能留下最坚定的信仰者。当世界还在抢黄金时，比特币正安静等待下一次“信任崩塌”的时刻——那时，它或许不再是资产，而是出路。

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By the end of 2025, the difficulty of Bitcoin mining has reached a new historical high, standing at 148.26T, and is expected to break 149T in January 2026. On the surface, this is a 'cost alert' for miners; on a deeper level, it is precisely the market's most resolute vote on the long-term value of BTC.

Why is mining difficulty continuously rising? Because global capital is still betting real money on the future of Bitcoin. Even after experiencing market fluctuations in October, professional mining companies in North America, the Middle East, and Latin America are accelerating the deployment of new generation mining machines — they are not blindly expanding, but instead are using computing power to build the foundation for the next bull market. Especially with the halving approaching in 2026, locking in low-cost computing power in advance is a way to seize a scarce share of future block rewards.

What is even more optimistic is that rising difficulty = enhanced network security = increased system trust. Each adjustment in difficulty means that the cost of attacking the Bitcoin network grows exponentially. This 'defensive barrier' formed spontaneously by the market is its core advantage as digital gold that cannot be replicated.

For investors, the current 'high compression state' of the mining ecosystem is actually a signal of opportunity: when small miners are cleared out and industry concentration increases, the network will become more stable; and once the coin price breaks through key resistance, high difficulty will actually limit the rapid influx of new computing power, creating a perfect resonance of 'supply tightening + demand explosion'.

Therefore, don't view 149T as an obstacle; it is actually Bitcoin's rite of passage to becoming a mainstream asset — the harder it is to mine, the more precious it becomes.

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El Salvador is not buying coins; it is betting on the future currency order! While the world is still debating whether Bitcoin is digital gold or a bubble wreck, El Salvador has already jumped out of the framework of technology or speculation — what it is buying is not an asset, but a ticket to the future currency order. In 2025, it increased its holdings by 1511 BTC, with total holdings exceeding 7514 coins. On the surface, it seems like 'buying the dip,' but in reality, it is a carefully planned geopolitical financial gamble by the Bukele government.

Don't be fooled by the label of 'legal tender.' In reality, over 90% of the citizens hardly use Bitcoin for payments, and remittances still go through the dollar channel. What El Salvador is truly betting on is not daily circulation, but making BTC a strategic reserve to counteract the hegemony of the dollar. In the cracks of the IMF loan agreement, it still insists on buying at least 1 coin every day, which is not only a silent provocation to the international financial system but also a signal to global South countries: small nations can also compete for monetary discourse through non-traditional paths.

However, this 'calculated gamble' carries extremely high risks. The national treasury is deeply tied to a single highly volatile asset, and once the market collapses, it could trigger a sovereign credit crisis. El Salvador's experiment may be doomed to not be replicable, but it has successfully pushed Bitcoin from a geek toy to the chessboard of national competition — this itself is a victory.

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When the market is still repeatedly questioning Bitcoin with terms like 'pullback', 'bubble', and 'regulatory risk', MicroStrategy has already provided the ultimate answer with a clear balance sheet: $74,972 — this is the average cost of the world's largest holder of Bitcoin and also the most solid foundation for the upcoming bull market.

As of December 21, 2025, MicroStrategy holds 671,000 Bitcoins with a total cost of $50.33 billion. At the current market price of about $95,000, its paper profit has already exceeded $12 billion. But that's not the key point — the key point is that it holds $2.19 billion in cash reserves and has just paused buying, not retreating, but building momentum. Stocking up on ammunition when others are fearful, firing when others are desperate — this is exactly the rhythm Saylor has been successfully following for five years.

What’s even more bullish is that MicroStrategy's 'never sell + continuous financing to accumulate Bitcoin' model is turning its corporate balance sheet into a 'national reserve' of Bitcoin. Every time it increases its BTC holdings, the global circulating supply decreases; each time it announces a low-cost position, the market's understanding of 'long-term value anchor' is strengthened. This narrative of scarcity driven by real capital is far more powerful than technical rebounds on price charts.

Don't forget, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has begun, the global liquidity inflection point is approaching, and the supply contraction effect after Bitcoin halving will be fully realized in 2026. In this macro context, a whale holding 670,000 BTC at a cost of $75,000 is not a risk, but the strongest bullish ballast.

So, don't be scared off by short-term fluctuations. A true bull market never starts from new highs, but grows from the confidence that 'even the biggest players are still firmly buying'.

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When others are still struggling with whether "$90,000 is the peak or the bottom," Michael Saylor has already pressed the calculator to $10 million—this is not a pipe dream; it is the KPI he set for Bitcoin. The captain of Strategy recently stated: as long as the company acquires 5% to 7% of the total Bitcoin supply, the price can soar from six figures to seven figures or even eight figures. Does it sound like science fiction? But don’t rush to laugh; behind this is a carefully designed "financial hunting."

The core of Saylor's logic is "supply shock": when the circulating Bitcoin is continuously locked up by whales, the market's tradable chips sharply decrease, and the price will inevitably soar non-linearly. And Strategy is the executor of this experiment—it uses equity and bond financing to buy Bitcoin and then relies on paper gains to boost its stock price, forming a flywheel of "financing → hoarding coins → premium → refinancing." Over the past five years, it has quietly absorbed nearly 3.2% of BTC at a cost of less than half of the current market price.

But the problem is also apparent: the flywheel relies on market sentiment and the financing environment. Now Bitcoin has plunged 30% from its high of $126,000, MSTR's stock price has halved, and MSCI is even considering removing it from the index. If liquidity dries up, this "infinite buying machine" may jam before reaching 5%.

Saylor is betting not on technology, but on human nature's madness for scarcity. However, history has repeatedly proven: no matter how perfect the model, it cannot withstand a collapse of confidence. He wants to inject power into the network, but don't forget—if the engine overheats, it may also self-ignite.

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When global computing power collapses, and mining farms collectively go offline, only a few hundred mining machines buzzing in the corner remain, many will shout: “Bitcoin is finished!” But the truth is quite the opposite: this may be its purest moment.

Bitcoin's security has never been built on the illusion of “massive computing power,” but rather stems from the delicate balance of economic incentives and decentralized consensus. Even if only a few dozen mining machines remain, as long as there are individuals willing to mine, the network can still produce blocks; as long as there are full nodes validating rules, the chain will not be chaotic. The difficulty adjustment mechanism will automatically “reduce dimensions to survive” within two weeks, allowing the system to breathe again. The real risk is not having less computing power, but rather having it overly centralized—that is what leaves gaps for a 51% attack.

But don't forget: attacking a network that is worth zero is meaningless. If it comes to only a few hundred mining machines left, it indicates that the market has shrunk drastically, and profits from double spending are far from covering costs. Rational attackers would not engage in such a losing business. More crucially, the Bitcoin community is not a passive collection of code that is beaten upon, but a living ecosystem that can respond quickly to threats—if necessary, hard forks and protocol upgrades are options.

Ultimately, the design philosophy of Bitcoin is to be anti-fragile, rather than pursuing never making mistakes. It is not afraid of recession, only afraid of people not believing. As long as there is one person plugging in the power and syncing nodes, it lives on. A few hundred mining machines are not the end of the world, but a stress test of the original intention of “decentralization”—and history has repeatedly proven, the more it is pushed to the corner, the harder it rebounds.

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In January 2010, you spent 120 yuan to buy three movie tickets to watch 'Avatar', marveling at the fantasy of Pandora; if you had converted that money into Bitcoin, today it would be worth 150 million — this is not a joke, but a reality check on perception. And now, some dare to predict: Bitcoin will soar to 10 million dollars each. Crazy? Perhaps not.

Behind this is a silent financial revolution. 10 million dollars means Bitcoin's total market value exceeds 200 trillion dollars — far surpassing the total global amount of gold, stocks, and even currencies. What it seeks is not just an 'increase', but replacement: replacing gold's store of value, replacing part of the dollar's credit function, becoming the ultimate anchor of the digital era.

But don't be misled by the numbers. Michael Saylor said, 'Holding 7% BTC can push it to 10 million', yet global sovereign funds, pensions, and central banks have yet to allocate even 1%. The true barrier has never been technology, but the cost of transferring trust. As long as the fiat currency system can maintain stability, no one will bet on a disruption.

However, once a global debt crisis erupts, malicious inflation spreads, and geopolitical conflicts tear apart traditional financial networks, Bitcoin's characteristics of being 'permissionless, unfrozen, and with a constant total supply' will no longer be just a geek's toy, but a civilization-level escape pod.

Therefore, 10 million dollars is not a price prediction but a signal: when the old order begins to collapse, a new consensus quietly rises. What we await is not a breakthrough in K-line, but a world change.

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Stop deceiving yourself—The money you have worked hard to save cannot keep up with the money printing machine. Over the past decade, the purchasing power of major global currencies has shrunk by an average of over 40%, while bank fixed deposit rates have been below 2%. This is not financial management; this is chronic blood loss.

Bitcoin is precisely one of the few weapons ordinary people have to fight against this 'invisible plunder.' Its total supply is capped at 21 million coins, and the algorithm is designed to never increase—this means that as long as humanity continues to trust mathematics more than politicians, Bitcoin inherently possesses anti-inflation genes. In 2025, even Wall Street giants like BlackRock and MicroStrategy are hoarding coins like crazy, not because they 'believe in crypto,' but because they see through it: the fiat currency system has entered an irreversible credit dilution cycle.

Some say the volatility is too great? But have you calculated: salaries have doubled in ten years, housing prices have tripled, Bitcoin has increased a hundredfold—what’s truly dangerous has never been the volatility, but the illusion of staying still. Ordinary people don't need to go all in; just invest 1% to 5% of spare cash regularly, and you can embed a 'anti-fragile anchor' in your asset allocation.

More importantly, Bitcoin grants you true financial sovereignty. No bank can freeze it, no intermediary can take a cut, with the private key in hand, the asset is in hand. In turbulent times, this is more practical than gold—after all, no one can carry gold bars across borders for transfers, but you can use your phone to instantly send value to the other side of the Earth.

Therefore, ordinary people invest in Bitcoin not to get rich, but to avoid being quietly eliminated by the times.

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Stop complaining that 'the altcoin season hasn't started yet.' Arthur Hayes hits the nail on the head: the altcoin season has always been there, it's just that you haven't bought the right coins.

Too many people are living in the illusion of 2021—thinking the next hundredfold coin has to be ETH, DOT, or LINK, believing that the meme craze must replicate the script of Dogecoin. What happened? When Hyperliquid's HYPE skyrocketed from $3 to $60, and Solana surged back from $7 to $300, they were still looking for 'bottom signals' in the candlestick charts, waiting for a 'unified bull market' that will never come.

It's not the market that has changed; it's you who hasn't changed.
Today's crypto world is already fragmented: the Base trench is trading memes, the Solana ecosystem is rotating AI Agents, and the privacy track is quietly rising... each narrative window may only last two weeks. If you are still clinging to centralized exchanges and scrolling outdated 'hundredfold prediction charts,' then of course you feel that 'the market hasn't come'—because you are simply not on the battlefield.

Hayes is harsh but true: 'You haven't missed the altcoin season; you are just afraid to participate.' In 2017, you thought white papers were nonsense, in 2021, you laughed at NFTs as monkey avatars, and in 2024, you say HYPE is just air. But those who have made real money have long learned one thing: let go of your obsessions, chase the flow of funds, rather than chasing memories.

The market owes you no opportunities; it only rewards those who can evolve quickly.
So stop asking 'when will the altcoin season come'—it has already happened; it just hasn't happened to you.

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In 2025, if you have exactly 1 Bitcoin (approximately 650,000 RMB) in your wallet, don't rush to show it off—what's truly worth being proud of is not the asset number, but the fact that you have quietly crossed the cognitive threshold of 99.8% of the global population.

Many people are still mocking 'speculating on coins,' yet fail to realize: Bitcoin is no longer a speculative toy, but a mirror reflecting the fragility of finance. When central banks around the world are frantically printing money and inflation is invisibly harvesting the middle class, Bitcoin, with its capped supply of 21 million, has become the only 'hard currency' that ordinary people can control autonomously. Owning 1 BTC means you no longer blindly trust the numbers in your bank account, but vote with your actions—choosing a decentralized, censorship-resistant, and non-inflatable store of value.

The key factor is scarcity. There are over 8 billion people in the world, but the addresses holding ≥1 BTC are less than a million. This is not a goal that can be immediately achieved just by having money; it requires patience, discipline, and even a bit of anti-human instinct—not to cut losses during a crash and not to leverage during a frenzy. Too many people shout 'faith,' yet they exit at $30,000; those who truly hold on are often as silent as a mountain.

Of course, this does not mean advocating for All in. Bitcoin is still a highly volatile asset, but it offers a possibility: ordinary people can also participate in a global value experiment built on code and consensus.
Therefore, the significance of 1 Bitcoin has never been about the price, but whether you have seen the cracks in the old system and bravely stood at the entrance of the new world.

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When the Bitcoin to gold ratio falls back to 20 ounces, the market starts to debate whether it's a "bottom" or a "top." But don't be fooled by the surface numbers—this is not a simple bull-bear line, but a reshuffling of asset faith.

In 2025, gold skyrocketed by 63%, surpassing $4000/ounce, central banks hoarded gold, and retail investors flocked to ETFs. Gold is no longer just a safe-haven tool; it has become the "new dollar." And Bitcoin? In the context of delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and over 160,000 people forced to liquidate, it was ruthlessly sold off. On the surface, it seems that the BTC/GOLD ratio has broken through a key level; in essence, global capital has chosen the "visible anchor" amidst uncertainty, rather than the "trust in code."

However, because of this, opportunities may be brewing. History doesn't repeat itself simply, but the rhythm is remarkably similar: whenever the BTC/GOLD RSI drops below 30, it often corresponds to a long-term bottom. Michaël van de Poppe is right—it's not that Bitcoin is too weak, but that gold is too strong. Once the macro wind changes (for example, when the Federal Reserve truly begins a rate cut wave in 2026), the speed of capital flowing back into the crypto market may far exceed expectations.

More crucially, the decline in 2025 is not an ecological collapse, but a deleveraging and narrative reconstruction. If BTC can hold the support at 20 ounces, it may replicate the reversal script after 2019; if it fails, it could trigger a deeper adjustment. But in any case, a true bull market never emerges from consensus; it quietly starts in despair and divergence. Now is the time to be sober and lay out a strategy.

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Don't be intimidated by the more than 1.3 billion single liquidation number—real opportunities often hide in the gaps of panic and hesitation. When the market is closely watching the "death line" at $83,757, smart money is quietly positioning: once Bitcoin breaks through $92,402, $1.4 billion in short positions will instantly vanish, and this is not an ordinary rebound, but a typical combination of "short squeeze + liquidity replenishment".

The bullish logic has never been so solid. The fourth halving has passed, and the daily new supply has sharply decreased to 450 coins; 74% of BTC globally is in long-term locked status, making circulating chips increasingly scarce. Meanwhile, giants like BlackRock and Fidelity are continuously accumulating through spot ETFs, with just the U.S. ETF holdings exceeding 800,000 coins—this is not a retail frenzy, but a revolution in asset allocation where institutions are voting with real money.

The more critical factor is the macro shift. The Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle has already begun, the dollar is weakening, and the global "asset scarcity" is intensifying. Bitcoin, as a non-sovereign, anti-inflation digital gold, is becoming a core tool for hedging systemic risks. Even Texas has started purchasing IBIT to build strategic reserves, and the signal released is far more powerful than any candlestick chart.

Short-term volatility? Of course there will be. But history has repeatedly proven: every 12–18 months after a halving is a key window for wealth redistribution. $92,000 is not the endpoint, but the starting point for a new round of value reassessment. A real bull market never arises in the comfort zone—it quietly starts when everyone hesitates and quietly ends when consensus boils over. Now, which side are you on?

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When the market is in a panic sell-off over the possibility of MSTR being removed from the MSCI, the true opportunists have quietly built their positions — because this "identity crisis" has exposed the lag of the traditional index system, rather than the failure of the MSTR model.

Yes, 77% of MSTR's balance sheet is in Bitcoin. But let's not forget: it has opened the door for institutional investors to hold BTC in compliance with corporate identity. In the current situation where spot Bitcoin ETFs are still hampered by regulatory restrictions, MSTR is the most efficient "Bitcoin leverage channel". Its software business has an annual revenue of $500 million, continuing operations, paying taxes, and hiring — is this not a solid business? MSCI marginalizes it on the grounds of "non-operating", which is essentially institutional discrimination against new digital asset companies.

More crucially, the bad news has long been priced in. The stock price has been halved and then halved again from its peak, with the market value approaching the net value of the Bitcoin it holds, and the premium almost zero. Even if it is really removed on January 15, the $2.8 billion passive sell-off will hardly create a deep pit — JPMorgan even admits that "downward space is limited". Conversely, if MSCI ultimately compromises (especially in the context of MSTR already being included in the NASDAQ 100), it will be an epic reversal of expectations!

Michael Saylor's ambition has never been to run an ordinary software company, but to build the "financial infrastructure of the Bitcoin era". Short-term pain is inevitable, but history will ultimately prove: when mainstream indices are still measuring digital civilization with the yardstick of the industrial age, MSTR has long stood at the starting line of the next bull market. The current panic is merely a discount ticket for smart money to enter.

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When the prediction market pushed Hassett to a 54% chance of winning, we should wake up to the fact that this is not a selection based on expertise in monetary policy, but rather a precise bet on Trump's political preferences. Hassett is 'leading' not because he understands inflation better than Waller, nor because he is more skilled in interest rate models than Walsh, but because he dares to say and is willing to do what is implied: 'The president is right.'

The market votes with real money, and what it is voting on is not the title of PhD in economics, but the 'loyalty premium.' Hassett has been vocally advocating for 'immediate rate cuts' for months, even calling the November CPI an 'explosive positive'—a style of language that has long departed from the restraint expected of central bank officials, more akin to an extension of a White House press release. What Trump wants is just such a person who can lower interest rates and will not 'sing a different tune' in public.

But the problem is precisely here: if the Federal Reserve loses its independence, it might temporarily lower mortgage rates, but in the long run, it could undermine the foundation of dollar credibility. Although Walsh has worked at the Federal Reserve, he is viewed by Wall Street as a 'spirited technocrat'; Waller has repeatedly emphasized that 'we should not rush to cut rates.' In contrast, the more compliant Hassett is, the more the market should be vigilant—because a central bank that obeys the president will ultimately become a political tool.

Now the betting market is hot, but the real risk lies not in who takes office, but in whether the Federal Reserve can still uphold that line of 'not kneeling.'

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“If I could do it all over again, I would only buy Bitcoin and not touch any other coins.” — When Charlie Lee, the father of Litecoin, said this, it felt like a bucket of cold water was thrown over the entire altcoin circle. This statement sounds harsh, but it serves as a mirror reflecting the most naked truth of the crypto world: between faith and speculation, most projects have long lost their direction.

LTC was once hailed as “digital silver,” a testing ground for Bitcoin, a pioneer in payments, and even at one point, it maintained a market value among the top five. But ten years have passed, and it has neither become a mainstream payment tool nor built a truly irreplaceable ecosystem. In contrast, Bitcoin has become even more resilient through cycles of bull and bear markets — it doesn’t pursue speed, doesn’t promote smart contracts, and focuses solely on one thing: becoming the strongest value storage with global consensus.

Lee's “regret” is not a denial of technology but a reflection on the industry's restlessness. Too many projects are waving the banner of “innovation,” while in reality, they are just copying and pasting, marketing to harvest profits. True value has never been found in white papers but is forged through the refinement of time. Now in 2025, despite LTC launching LitVM, embracing institutions, and even obtaining an ETF, these efforts seem more like “catching up” rather than “leading.”

However, optimists can still be hopeful: it is precisely because of pioneers like LTC making mistakes that the entire industry can see clearly — the ultimate moat of decentralization is not how cool the code is, but how deep the consensus is. Perhaps LTC will ultimately struggle to surpass BTC, but the spark it once ignited still illuminates the path ahead for Web3. And we need not completely deny “silver,” but must always revere “gold.”

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"Once quantum computers go online, Bitcoin will go to zero"—this sounds like a line from a sci-fi movie, but the reality is far less dramatic. On the contrary, the real opportunities are often hidden in the public's panic.

Currently, about 25% of Bitcoin (mainly early P2PK addresses) public keys have indeed been exposed, and theoretically, they could be cracked by quantum computers in the future. But don't forget: the vast majority of these coins are "dead coins"—those belonging to Satoshi, lost mnemonic phrases, or those that have remained inactive in cold wallets for decades. They have never participated in circulation, and the market has long regarded them as having "permanently exited." Even if they were truly stolen in the future? That would only reactivate dormant supply, which could potentially trigger community consensus to freeze them—Michael Saylor believes this would strengthen Bitcoin's scarcity.

More importantly, the assets of active users are almost completely safe. As long as you are using a modern wallet (like a SegWit address starting with bc1q), the public key is always hidden before the transfer. Quantum attacks must be completed within a few minutes of the transaction being broadcast to confirmation—given current technology, that is harder than winning the lottery.

Even more crucially, Bitcoin is not a fossil; it is a living system. NIST has finalized standards for quantum-resistant signatures, and teams like BTQ are advancing protocol upgrades, with the mainnet expected to be deployed by 2026. This means that before quantum truly poses a threat, Bitcoin will have already completed its "vaccination."

Therefore, rather than fearing quantum, it's better to see the essence: this is a stress test and an opportunity for value reassessment. While others sell off due to FUD, smart money is accumulating at lower levels—because true believers know that assets capable of weathering technological storms deserve the title of "digital gold."

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When the market panics to the point where even the words "buy the dip" are not dared to be mentioned, opportunities are often already at the door knocking.

The Bitcoin weekly RSI has dropped to 35—this number last appeared at the beginning of 2023 during the bone-chilling bear market bottom, when the price hovered around $16,000. Now, the same technical signal is emerging again, but the price is firmly above $80,000. What does this indicate? It's not that the market is weaker, but that the fundamentals of the asset have already undergone a transformation: the approval of spot ETFs, institutional holdings doubling, and a global macro shift towards easing expectations... Today's "oversold" condition is a correction occurring at a brand new value center, not a precursor to a crash.

Don't be scared by the 36% drop. The fall from the high of $126,000 has precisely squeezed out leverage bubbles and FOMO emotions, leaving behind true long-term holders with faith. And the RSI, as a momentum indicator, is most easily "dull" under extreme emotions—it is not ineffective, but is building up energy for a reversal. History won't simply repeat itself, but it will rhyme: after January 2023, BTC embarked on an epic bull market that saw a sixfold increase. Today, we may be standing at the starting line of a new cycle.

Of course, there will still be fluctuations in the short term, and it may even test the $78,000 support again. But smart money is already in action: whales continue to accumulate, the UK government holds its coins steadfastly, and ARK quietly increases its positions in crypto stocks. When fear becomes consensus, being bullish is the most rational choice.

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When the market is still cheering for the "$90,000 rebound," a piece of data from CryptoQuant pours a bucket of cold water: the third wave of spot demand for Bitcoin is quietly retreating. This is not a simple correction, but a prelude to a structural demand collapse.

In the past year, Bitcoin's price has been supported by ETF capital flows, institutional allocations, and high-position cash-outs from "old hands," but now these three pillars are simultaneously weakening. ETFs have seen consecutive net outflows, long-term holders are accelerating their sell-offs, and retail leverage is exhausted—the buying power is not just taking a temporary break but is undergoing systematic shrinkage. More alarmingly, since October, spot demand has consistently fallen below the long-term trend line, indicating that the market has slid from "emotion-driven" to a "liquidity vacuum."

Many people still fantasize that macro favorable conditions (such as a cooling CPI) can ignite a new bull market, but the reality is: even if U.S. stocks rise, BTC is unlikely to resonate again. Because the essence of this cycle is no longer speculative frenzy, but the redistribution of chips between institutions and OGs. When early whales have completed profit-taking, and new funds hesitate due to fear of volatility, the price naturally loses its anchor.

A retreat in demand is not frightening; what is frightening is that we are still interpreting bear market signals with bull market thinking. The true bottom has never been in the candlestick charts but is reached after people completely give up their fantasies. Right now, perhaps it is that moment of "no one cares"—but it may also be the closest window to a value trough when looking back in the future.

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When others are still relieved by Japan's interest rate hike 'shoe dropping', Arthur Hayes sneers: Don't be naive, this is just the 'negative interest rate magic show' carefully staged by the Bank of Japan. In his view, the so-called interest rate hike is merely a smokescreen—nominal rates are slightly adjusted, while inflation remains high, and real rates are still mired in negative territory. This is Japan's true trump card: to continue feeding global carry trades with cheap yen while quietly harvesting asset pricing power.

Hayes's prediction seems crazy: the yen against the dollar falls to 200, Bitcoin surges to 1 million dollars. But upon reflection, there is a logical loop. As long as Japan maintains a monetary policy of 'nominal tightness, real looseness', the pressure on the yen to depreciate will not disappear. Once global capital realizes that the yen is still the 'cheapest fuel', carry trades will only return in different forms. At that time, funds will once again flow into high-risk assets—especially decentralized, fixed-supply Bitcoin.

More critically, beneath the seemingly reverse operations of US and Japanese policies, global liquidity has not truly tightened. The Fed's interest rate cuts + Japan's 'pseudo rate hikes' have actually conspired to create an 'illusion of easing'. And in this illusion, those who wake up first are often the ones like Hayes who dare to bet on extreme narratives.

So, don't just focus on the trembling candlestick charts— the real storm is never in the prices, but in the collapse and reconstruction of monetary faith.

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