The official research report mentions: Currently, in the BTC's chip structure, a large number of top positions are accumulated in the range of $93,000 to $120,000, and the resulting supply distribution reflects a market structure of 'heavy head and light feet,' which is similar to the situation in early 2022.
(Figure 1)
However, in this cycle, as long as BTC stays in a certain position for a long time, there will be a large accumulation of chips, even after breaking through the historical high, this strong buying intention has not weakened.
(Figure 2)
For example:
- From July to October 2023, accumulation occurred between $26,000 and $30,000, and later, with BlackRock's ETF application event hype, it broke through the accumulation area in one go;
- From June to October 2024, accumulation occurred between $59,000 and $69,000, and later, after Trump won the presidential election, it broke through in one go......
- From December 2024 to May 2025, accumulation occurred between $92,000 and $105,000, and later, after the tariff crisis was resolved, it broke through in one go......
Therefore, I personally feel that just because there is chip accumulation, and it is similar to January 2022 (the initial switch from bull to bear), it does not necessarily mean that BTC will further replicate the trend after 2022 after being constrained by selling pressure above during the rebound.
If the macro cycle enters a loose phase in the future, releasing liquidity, risk appetite rises, and market confidence is restored, it cannot be ruled out that there is a possibility of breaking through the upper chip accumulation area again.
After all, the out-of-control inflation in early 2022 (CPI > 7%), the Fed's clear shift to interest rate hikes + balance sheet reduction, and the rapid rise in real interest rates, combined with the serious pressure on BTC chips, and multiple factors overlapping, were the 'total dam' of the bear market in 2022.
$BTC #加密市场观察
{future}(BTCUSDT)
