According to ChainCatcher, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin stated on Farcaster that prediction markets are a good remedy for crazy opinions on emotional topics, using two screenshots as examples: Musk previously posted that a civil war in the UK was 'inevitable,' while on the prediction market Polymarket, the question 'Will there be a civil war in the UK in 2024?' shows only a 3% probability (Vitalik believes 3% is still too high, as some bettors have raised the probability).
Vitalik stated that many users on social media exaggerate by claiming 'something is definitely going to happen' to create panic or attract attention, but do not take responsibility for it; in contrast, prediction markets involve real monetary bets and tend to reflect true probabilities, helping to counter these 'crazy opinions.'
Vitalik subsequently elaborated on his overall view of prediction markets: compared to social media (which creates panic without accountability) and mainstream media (which relies on clickbait), prediction markets have a stronger incentive for 'truth-seeking.' Telling the truth can yield real rewards, while lying incurs significant economic penalties. After discovering exaggerated news, checking Polymarket reveals very low probabilities, which can calm people down and also avoid false hopes. Prediction markets are the 'antidote' to social media, providing a more rational and responsible way to aggregate public opinion.
