CoinVoice has recently learned that Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin stated in a post on Farcaster that prediction markets are an antidote to the crazy opinions on emotional topics, using two screenshots as examples: Musk previously posted that a civil war in the UK is 'inevitable', while the prediction market Polymarket shows only a 3% probability in the market 'Will there be a civil war in the UK in 2024?' (Vitalik believes 3% is still too high, as some bettors are betting to raise the probability).
Vitalik stated that many users on social media exaggerate by claiming 'something will definitely happen' to create panic or attract attention, but they are not held accountable for it; whereas prediction markets involve real monetary bets, which are more likely to reflect true probabilities and can counter these 'crazy opinions'.
Vitalik then elaborated on his overall view of prediction markets: compared to social media (which creates panic without accountability) and mainstream media (which often sensationalizes), prediction markets have a stronger incentive for "truth-seeking." Telling the truth can yield real rewards, while lying carries significant economic penalties. After discovering exaggerated news, checking Polymarket reveals a very low probability, which can calm people down and conversely avoid false hopes. Prediction markets are the "antidote" to social media, providing a more rational and responsible way to aggregate public opinion.[Original link]
