This table is basically showing Bitcoin’s seasonality by quarter, and the red box highlights Q4, which is where most people expect strong performance — but the data shows it’s not guaranteed.

Key takeaways from the chart

1. Q4 is historically strong, but volatile

Big green Q4s: 2017 (+215%), 2020 (+168%), 2023 (+56.9%), 2024 (+47.7%)

But there are also deep red Q4s: 2018 (-42%), 2019 (-13.5%), 2022 (-14.7%), 2025 (-22.6%)

👉 Q4 tends to expand volatility, not promise upside.

2. Context matters more than the quarter Strong Q4s usually happened when:

BTC was in a bull market continuation

Liquidity was expanding

Price had already reclaimed key HTF levels before Q4

Weak Q4s happened when:

BTC was in a bear or distribution phase

Macro liquidity was tightening

Prior quarters failed to build structure

So Q4 amplifies the existing trend rather than reversing it.

3. Q2 is statistically the most consistent upside quarter Across cycles, Q2 often shows:

Strong recoveries (2017, 2019, 2020, 2024, 2025)

Trend confirmation after Q1 volatility

Many bull runs actually start structurally in Q2, not Q4.

4. Current implication (important) If BTC enters Q4:

Below key resistance / range high → risk of red Q4

Above ATH / in price discovery → Q4 expansion likely

Seasonality is a bias, not a signal.

Bottom line

Q4 can be explosive only if structure supports it

Blind “Q4 bullish” narratives fail roughly 40–45% of the time

Always combine seasonality with market structure, liquidity, and HTF trend

If you want, I can break this down into a clean post-style narrative or align it with your usual BTC/USDT analysis script.